# [7D] Black Sea Freight and Insurance Costs Rise on Ongoing Port Attack Risks

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T23:09:56.232Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T23:09:56.232Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Black Sea, Russia, Turkey, EU grain-importing countries
**Affected Assets**: Dry bulk and tanker freight rates (Black Sea routes), War-risk insurance for Black Sea shipping, Russian crude and grain exports
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10709.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 7 days, freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums for Black Sea routes, particularly from Novorossiysk and nearby ports, are likely to rise as attacks continue and insurers reassess risk. Even if direct physical damage remains manageable, intermittent drone strikes will cause delays, route adjustments, and higher operating costs. Some shippers may temporarily reroute or reduce calls at high-risk terminals, especially for non-essential cargoes. Contrarian scenario: Ukrainian attacks pause and Russia demonstrates effective air defense, leading insurers to keep premiums stable.

## Drivers

- Repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Novorossiysk port infrastructure with fires reported
- Warnings of added risk premium on seaborne Russian crude and grain flows from Black Sea
- Emerging trend: 'Ukraine and Russia intensify deep-strike campaign against logistics'