# [7D] Sustained Elevated Energy Prices With Episodes of Extreme Volatility

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T23:09:56.232Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T23:09:56.232Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Europe, Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent and WTI, European gas (TTF), Diesel and gasoline cracks, Shipping insurance and freight rates
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10708.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next week, crude oil and key refined product prices are likely to remain significantly above recent averages, with sharp intraday swings driven by news about US–Iran hostilities and Russian export disruptions. Brent could test multi-month highs if any credible threat to Hormuz flows emerges, while Russian Urals and Black Sea blends may trade at larger discounts due to port risk and insurance costs. European gas prices may also firm on fears of supply competition and LNG route instability. Contrarian scenario: rapid de-escalation around Iran and confirmation of limited Russian infrastructure damage lead to partial retracement of gains.

## Drivers

- Warnings that Iran crisis has 'direct implications for Gulf energy supply'
- Yaroslavl refinery outage and Novorossiysk attacks threatening Russian exports
- Emerging trend: 'Iran leverages Hormuz toll regime' and structural European energy tightness through at least 2027