# [7D] Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign Further Degrades Russian Refineries and Black Sea Exports

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T23:09:56.232Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T23:09:56.232Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern and Western Russia, Black Sea, Eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and ports, Ukrainian rail and energy infrastructure, Insurance and freight for Black Sea shipping
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10703.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the coming 7 days, Ukraine is likely to execute multiple additional drone and missile strikes against Russian refineries and Black Sea export infrastructure, further curbing Russian refined product output and intermittently disrupting crude and grain loadings. Russia will respond with intensified strikes on Ukrainian logistics, rail, and energy infrastructure, particularly in border regions and along the M14 supply line. The attritional dynamic will deepen, with increasing difficulty for Russia to maintain export volumes without costly rerouting and repairs. Contrarian scenario: Russian air defense adaptations significantly improve interception rates, forcing Ukraine to adjust tactics and possibly shift to other high-value targets.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: 'Ukrainian deep-strike campaign is structurally degrading Russia’s refining capacity'
- Recent Novorossiysk strikes and severe Yaroslavl damage
- EUCOM assessment highlighting mutual deep-strike escalation
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Starobilsk and Belgorod logistics