# [24H] Renewed Ukrainian Deep-Strike Wave on Russian Energy and Logistics Targets

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T23:09:56.232Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-23T23:09:56.232Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Southern Russia, Black Sea region, Occupied Luhansk and Donetsk
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil refineries, Black Sea export terminals, Rail nodes and logistics depots
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10691.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long-range drone or missile attacks on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure, building on the successful strikes at Novorossiysk and the Yaroslavl refinery. Priority targets will likely include Black Sea ports, refineries, and rail/logistics hubs supporting the southern front. The operational intent is to structurally degrade Russian fuel availability and export capacity, increasing costs and complicating Russian maneuver. Contrarian scenario: temporary Ukrainian operational pause to assess Russian air defense adjustments, leading to a brief lull in deep strikes.

## Drivers

- Recent confirmed Ukrainian drone strikes on Novorossiysk port infrastructure
- Satellite imagery showing severe, unrepaired damage to Yaroslavl refinery
- Emerging trend: 'Ukrainian deep-strike campaign is structurally degrading Russia’s refining capacity'
- EUCOM threat assessment: Ukraine intensifying deep-strike campaign