# [7D] Increased Russian Use of Long-Range Missiles and Drones Against Ukraine’s Energy Grid

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T17:09:32.531Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T17:09:32.531Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine (Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, frontline oblasts), Western Russia border regions (as source of launches)
**Affected Assets**: Ukrainian power plants and transmission networks, District heating systems, Industrial production facilities dependent on reliable power
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10672.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Russia is likely to escalate its campaign against Ukraine’s energy grid and associated infrastructure using long-range missiles and loitering munitions, partly framed as retaliation for deep strikes on Russian refineries and the Starobilsk attack. Substations, power plants, and high-voltage lines near major cities and industrial hubs will be prioritized to undermine Ukraine’s war-sustaining capacity. Ukraine’s improving air defenses will intercept a portion of these attacks but cannot prevent significant localized outages. This cycle will deepen energy insecurity ahead of future seasonal peaks.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend: Ukrainian deep-strike campaign degrading Russian refining and command infrastructure
- Russian threats to retaliate for high-profile Ukrainian strikes (Starobilsk, oil refinery)
- Past Russian behavior targeting energy infrastructure in response to battlefield setbacks
- Recent reports of missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure nodes