# [24H] Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign Against Russian Energy Infrastructure Continues at Low Tempo

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 5:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T17:09:32.531Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-23T17:09:32.531Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 60% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Western Russia (Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, possibly further inland), Russia-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and fuel depots, Rail and road fuel logistics, Local power infrastructure in targeted regions
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10665.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional drone or missile strike on Russian energy or logistics infrastructure, although operational success may be mixed. The emphasis will remain on refineries, fuel depots, and command facilities near the border or in occupied territories, continuing the pattern of targeting Russia’s refining capacity. Tactics will likely use long-range drones and stand-off munitions to limit exposure. Russia’s air defense posture will blunt some of these efforts but not fully deter them.

## Drivers

- Warning about Ukrainian strike hitting Russian refinery infrastructure
- Emerging trend: Ukrainian deep-strike campaign structurally degrading Russia’s refining capacity
- Multiple recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian command and logistics sites (Tyotkino, Luhansk region dormitory)
- Ongoing high-tempo long-range strikes noted in daily briefs