# [7D] Ukraine Sustains Deep-Strike Campaign on Russian Refineries and Military Infrastructure

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T11:09:23.983Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T11:09:23.983Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: European Russia, Caspian Sea littoral (Kaspiysk), Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian oil refineries, Russian naval missile platforms, Russian air defense networks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10645.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next seven days, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian refining capacity and military assets, including targets in European Russia and potentially the Caspian region. The repeated attack on the Yaroslavl refinery and confirmed hit on the corvette Tucha at Kaspiysk demonstrate both capability and intent to degrade Russia’s energy exports and cruise-missile platforms. Russia will respond with enhanced air defense deployments, dispersal of high-value naval and refining assets, and retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

## Drivers

- Emerging trend of structurally degrading Russian refining capacity
- Fresh confirmed strikes on Yaroslavl refinery and Caspian missile corvette
- Ukrainian doctrinal emphasis on long-range strike and UAV campaigns