# [7D] Expanded Ukrainian Drone and Missile Campaign to Sustain Pressure on Russian Energy and Military Targets

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T05:09:18.532Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-29T05:09:18.532Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia, Western Russia, Eastern and Central Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refined products exports, Ukrainian power grid, Insurance and shipping for Black Sea cargo
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10611.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Ukraine is likely to escalate its campaign of deep strikes against Russian refineries, fuel depots, and selected military launch sites in central and western Russia, aiming to degrade logistics for the war effort and raise domestic economic pressure on Moscow. A pattern of attacks every few days, potentially including new facilities beyond NORSI, is probable given prior operational tempo and successful OSINT-documented strikes. Russia will respond with enhanced air-defense deployments and retaliatory attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, reinforcing a tit-for-tat pattern. A contrarian outcome would be an externally mediated understanding to limit energy infrastructure strikes, but there is no sign of such talks succeeding.

## Drivers

- Multiple reports of Ukrainian drones bringing central Russian refining to a standstill
- Recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian launchers and energy assets
- Emerging trend: Mutual energy and maritime coercion hardens Russia–Ukraine contest beyond the battlefield