# [24H] Sustained Ukrainian Deep-Strike Drone Activity Against Russian Energy and Logistics Nodes

*Issued Friday, May 22, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-22T05:09:18.532Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-23T05:09:18.532Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia, Western Russia, Ukraine, Baltic-Black Sea corridor
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude logistics, Russian domestic fuel supply, Insurance for Russian energy infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10600.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct additional drone or missile attacks against Russian energy infrastructure or military logistics in western and central Russia, though not necessarily at NORSI itself. Kyiv has demonstrated an ongoing campaign against refineries and launchers and will seek to exploit Russian air-defense gaps highlighted by the recent NORSI strike. We should expect either attempted strikes or at minimum increased launch preparations and OSINT indicators of drone activity. A contrarian scenario would see a temporary lull due to weather, asset availability, or political signaling ahead of talks, but this is less consistent with current trends.

## Drivers

- Confirmed Ukrainian drone strike halving output at NORSI refinery in Kstovo
- Emerging trend of mutual energy and maritime coercion in the Russia–Ukraine war
- Recent Ukrainian MLRS and drone use in Donetsk, Kherson, and against Russian launchers