# [7D] Russian Refined Product Exports to Europe and Global Markets Decline Measurably

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T23:09:50.964Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-28T23:09:50.964Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Russia (central and Volga regions), Europe (especially Eastern and Central Europe), Global refined products trade routes
**Affected Assets**: Diesel and gasoil futures and cracks, Russian refined product export earnings, Tanker routes for clean products
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10582.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Russia’s exports of diesel, gasoline, and other refined products are likely to show a noticeable drop as multiple central refineries remain partly offline from Ukrainian drone attacks. Moscow will attempt to reroute flows from less-affected plants and draw on inventories, but logistics constraints will limit immediate substitution. This will tighten European product markets, particularly for diesel, sustaining elevated cracks and encouraging higher imports from the U.S., Middle East, and India. Over time, Russia may prioritize domestic supply to avoid fuel shortages and price spikes at home.

## Drivers

- Reports that Ukrainian drones have brought central Russia refining to a standstill
- Specific shutdown of around half of NORSI capacity
- Multiple earlier strikes on central Russian refineries noted in the warnings