# [24H] Continued Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T23:09:50.964Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-22T23:09:50.964Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia, Ukraine, Baltic and Black Sea region, Eastern Europe
**Affected Assets**: Urals crude differentials, Diesel and gasoil spreads in Europe, Russian domestic fuel prices, Physical insurance premia for Russian infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10564.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within the next 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to conduct at least limited follow-on drone strikes against Russian energy or logistics assets, though probably not on the same scale as the NORSI operation. Kyiv has demonstrated both capability and intent to systematically degrade Russia’s central refining system, and success at NORSI plus prior strikes creates operational momentum. However, air-defense adaptation and weather/asset constraints may reduce operational tempo or shift targets to softer logistics nodes (depots, rail hubs). Russian retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian energy and grid assets are likely to continue in parallel, sustaining a tit-for-tat pattern.

## Drivers

- Reuters-confirmed shutdown of roughly half of NORSI capacity after Ukrainian drone strike
- Warnings that Ukrainian drones have brought central Russian refining ‘to a standstill’
- Sustained trend of mutual energy and infrastructure coercion in the Russia–Ukraine war
- Recent Ukrainian strike on FSB HQ in Kherson and other deep-strike activity