# [7D] Ukraine Expands Deep-Strike Campaign to Additional Russian Energy Nodes and Possibly Rail Hubs

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 5:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T17:10:26.281Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-28T17:10:26.281Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central and southern Russia, Occupied Crimea, Eastern and central Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refineries and fuel depots, Rail logistics for Russian military, Ukrainian power grid and urban infrastructure
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10545.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next 7 days, Ukraine is likely to broaden its long-range drone and missile campaign beyond major refineries to include fuel storage depots, rail junctions, and possibly power infrastructure that supports Russian logistics and defense industry. The pattern of operational success and emerging Russian fuel shortages will encourage continued pressure, especially ahead of any perceived Russian offensive cycles. Russia will respond with intensified missile and glide-bomb attacks on Ukrainian grids and cities, increasing civilian risk. A contrarian scenario would be a diplomatic push by Western partners for Kyiv to limit deep strikes to avoid global energy disruption, but that pressure is unlikely to materially curb operations in the short term.

## Drivers

- Sustained Ukrainian drone attacks degrading Russian refining capacity
- Emerging trend: mutual deep-strike campaigns on energy and refining systems
- Reports of Russian domestic gasoline shortages
- Continuing missile and KAB strikes on Ukrainian urban areas