# [24H] Sustained Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Campaign Against Russian Refineries

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 5:10 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T17:10:26.281Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-22T17:10:26.281Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia, Southern Russia, Occupied Crimea, Eastern and central Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Russian refinery capacity, Ukrainian long-range drone inventory, Regional air-defense networks
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10536.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to launch at least one additional long-range drone or missile strike attempt against Russian energy infrastructure, with refineries and fuel depots in central or southern Russia as priority targets. The pattern of recent successful strikes and emerging Russian domestic shortages create strong incentives for Kyiv to keep pressure on Russian logistics and export capacity. Russia will respond with air and missile strikes on Ukrainian urban or energy targets but not at a substantially higher intensity than in recent weeks. A contrarian scenario would be a temporary operational pause by Ukraine for re-tasking and resupply, but this is less probable given current momentum.

## Drivers

- Fresh Ukrainian drone strike igniting a major Russian refinery
- Reports of emerging fuel shortages in Crimea and Ryazan
- Emerging trend: mutual energy and infrastructure coercion
- Ongoing Russian KAB and missile strikes in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast