# [30D] Sustained higher floor for global refined product prices; partial adaptation by non-Russian refiners

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T11:09:35.067Z (5h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-20T11:09:35.067Z (30d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Europe, Africa, Latin America, Asia-Pacific
**Affected Assets**: Diesel futures, Gasoline futures, Shipping and transport equities, Emerging-market current accounts
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10531.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Over the next month, global diesel and gasoline prices are likely to stabilize at a higher floor than pre-strike levels, as markets internalize persistent Russian refining disruptions and ongoing Ukraine strikes. Non-Russian refiners, especially in the Middle East, US, and Asia, will gradually increase runs and shift yields to capture margins, partially alleviating tightness. However, logistical and capacity constraints mean that complete substitution of Russian product flows will not be achieved, leaving import-dependent regions exposed. A contrarian outcome would be a significant Russian policy shift (e.g., emergency investment or priority fuel imports from allies) that restores a larger share of capacity faster than expected.

## Drivers

- Reports that approximately a quarter of Russian refining remains offline
- Ukraine’s declared intent to continue systematic strikes
- Historical lag in global refining system adjustment to major outages