# [24H] Continued Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian refining and logistics nodes

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 11:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T11:09:35.067Z (2h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-22T11:09:35.067Z (22h from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 65% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Central Russia, Volga region, Ukraine
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Diesel cracks, Gasoline cracks, Russian domestic fuel prices
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10509.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Ukraine is likely to attempt at least one additional long-range drone strike against Russian energy infrastructure, air defense sites, or logistics nodes, continuing the established operational tempo. Target selection will likely focus on refineries, fuel depots, or associated storage in central or Volga regions to maintain pressure on Russia’s war economy and domestic fuel supply. Russian air defenses will intercept some drones but will not fully prevent new damage or temporary shutdowns. A contrarian outcome would see a short operational pause in deep strikes due to weather, resource constraints, or political messaging, but Kyiv’s public commitment to ‘long-range sanctions’ makes this unlikely.

## Drivers

- Reuters confirmation that ~25% of Russian refining is offline due to recent strikes
- Zelensky’s repeated public pledge to continue long-range strikes
- Recent attack on Saratov and Syzran refineries showing sustained capability