# [7D] Global Oil Prices Sustain Elevated Risk Premium, While Physical Flows Through Hormuz Remain Intact

*Issued Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 5:09 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-21T05:09:24.231Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-28T05:09:24.231Z (7d from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 74% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global, Gulf, Asia (China, India, Japan, South Korea), Europe
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, Oil tanker equities and freight rates, Energy-sensitive currencies (NOK, CAD, RUB, GCC FX sentiment)
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10492.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Over the next week, Brent and Dubai crude are likely to trade with a sustained $3–$8 per barrel risk premium above prior trend, reflecting persistent uncertainty around Hormuz rather than any realized supply loss. Most cargoes will continue to transit but under higher insurance and finance costs and potentially slower routing as some owners wait for clearer guidance. Asian and European importers will begin exploring short-term diversification and stock drawdowns but will not yet significantly reduce Middle East liftings. The contrarian scenario would be an actual interdiction or incident, which would push prices much higher.

## Drivers

- Iran’s formalization of transit control mechanisms and supervision maps for Hormuz
- Market sensitivity to choke-point risk and prior episodes of tanker attacks
- Emerging trend of Hormuz disruption risk on global energy and food security