# [24H] China and Russia Issue Joint Condemnations but Avoid Direct Military Moves over Hormuz

*Issued Wednesday, May 20, 2026 at 7:28 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-20T19:28:19.475Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-21T19:28:19.475Z (20h from now)
**Category**: GEOPOLITICAL | **Confidence**: 75% | **Impact**: MEDIUM
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: UN and multilateral forums, Gulf region diplomatically, Moscow, Beijing
**Affected Assets**: Geopolitical risk premia in global equities, Defense sector equities in US, China, Russia
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10418.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

In the next 24 hours, China and Russia are likely to reiterate verbal and diplomatic condemnation of US–Israeli actions against Iran and the Hormuz blockade, but will avoid any proximate military deployments that directly challenge US naval operations. Their joint declaration on military cooperation and promotion of a multipolar order increases political backing for Tehran, yet neither power has an interest in near-term direct confrontation in the Gulf. Expect statements in multilateral fora, coordinated press lines, or minor naval presence signaling rather than escort missions for Iranian tankers. This will harden bloc politics without immediate kinetic implications.

## Drivers

- Russia–China joint declaration to deepen military cooperation and promote a multipolar world
- Specific condemnation of US–Israeli strikes on Iran
- Current focus of Russian military resources on Ukraine and Chinese caution about direct clash with US Navy