# [7D] Bolivian security forces escalate crowd-control operations as protests converge on La Paz

*Issued Monday, May 18, 2026 at 7:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-18T19:35:04.872Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-25T19:35:04.872Z (7d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: La Paz, Key Bolivian highways and border crossings, Santa Cruz and other opposition strongholds
**Affected Assets**: Bolivian police and security forces, Road and transport infrastructure, Gas and agricultural export routes
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10170.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within seven days, Bolivian security forces are likely to intensify crowd-control and limited coercive operations in and around La Paz as protest marches and blockades challenge government authority and demand President Rodrigo Paz’s resignation. Tactics will include tear gas, mass arrests, and selective targeting of protest leaders, with sporadic violent clashes. The military may be placed on alert or deployed in support roles if police forces are overstretched. While a full coup scenario remains unlikely in this horizon, the risk of lethal incidents and further radicalization of protesters will increase.

## Drivers

- Two weeks of nationwide blockades and protests with reported economic losses in the billions
- Recent use of gas on La Paz protesters and reports of marches converging on the capital
- SOUTHCOM theater noting heightened political and social instability
- Historical patterns of Bolivian crisis escalation when protests reach La Paz