# [24H] Brent and Dubai crude benchmarks gain 2–5% on Iran–US brinkmanship and Kharg-to-Jask rerouting

*Issued Monday, May 18, 2026 at 7:35 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-18T19:35:04.872Z (6h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-19T19:35:04.872Z (18h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 80% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global oil markets, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Russia’s seaborne export routes
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, Dubai/Oman benchmarks, Medium-sour crude grades, Tanker freight rates in the Gulf and Indian Ocean
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10163.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within the next day, Brent and Dubai crude prices are likely to trade 2–5% higher than pre-news levels as traders price in elevated risk of Hormuz disruption and uncertainty around Iranian export capacity during the Kharg-to-Jask transition. The lack of loadings at Kharg for 10 days and rerouting to Jask alters physical flows and adds sanctions-enforcement risk. While the US waiver on stranded Russian seaborne oil tempers upside, it does not fully offset the perceived threat to Gulf supplies. Volatility will be elevated intraday, with rapid responses to any new military signaling around Iran.

## Drivers

- Multiple warnings on Iran export shift from Kharg Island to Jask and associated risk premium
- US–Iran confrontation alerts highlighting possible imminent action and Hormuz risk
- US temporary easing on Russian stranded crude via 30-day waiver
- Market tendency to overprice near-term supply risks amid Gulf tensions