# [24H] Oil Prices Retrace Part of Spike on Iran Waiver Hopes but Stay Elevated on Supply Risk

*Issued Monday, May 18, 2026 at 1:04 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-18T13:04:19.572Z (3h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-05-19T13:04:19.572Z (21h from now)
**Category**: ECONOMIC | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: CRITICAL
**Risk Direction**: volatile
**Affected Regions**: Global, Middle East, Europe, Asia
**Affected Assets**: Brent Crude, WTI Crude, GCC energy equities, European refinery margins
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10101.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

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## Prediction

Within 24 hours, Brent is likely to give back a portion of the recent ~$17/barrel spike as markets price in a higher probability of Iranian export increases via temporary sanctions waivers, but prices will remain materially above pre-strike levels due to Ukrainian infrastructure damage and Gulf nuclear facility risk. Volatility will be elevated as traders weigh the IEA’s warning on critically low global stocks against potential incremental Iranian barrels. Middle East geopolitical risk premia will compress slightly but not normalize. Physical traders will remain cautious about immediate availability and quality of Iranian crude streams.

## Drivers

- Reports of US agreeing to temporary Iran oil sanctions waivers
- IEA warning that global oil stocks are critically low
- Recent mass Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy and Barakah-adjacent drone incident