# [30D] Drone Warfare Proliferation Increases Attack Frequency in Eastern Europe and Caribbean

*Issued Monday, May 18, 2026 at 7:07 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Issued**: 2026-05-18T07:07:15.957Z (4h ago)
**Expires**: 2026-06-17T07:07:15.957Z (30d from now)
**Category**: MILITARY | **Confidence**: 70% | **Impact**: HIGH
**Risk Direction**: escalatory
**Affected Regions**: Ukraine, Western Russia (border regions), Cuba, Caribbean Sea
**Affected Assets**: Regional airspace and shipping security, Insurance for ports and critical infrastructure, Defense electronics and counter-UAV sectors
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/forecasts/10087.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/forecasts

---

## Prediction

Within 30 days, the diffusion of drone warfare will manifest in more frequent UAV incidents in the Russia–Ukraine theater and the Caribbean, including at least one notable drone-related security incident involving Cuban-linked assets or training. Ukraine will expand deep-strike drone operations into Russian territory, while Russia continues large Shahed/Geran-2 campaigns against Ukrainian cities. Cuba, with Russian and Iranian assistance, will likely begin training and limited operational testing of new unmanned systems, raising regional intelligence and surveillance activity.

## Drivers

- Documented large-scale use of drones in Ukraine and against Russian border regions
- Cuba’s purchase of 300+ drones from Russia and Iran
- Trend of global drone warfare diffusion to state and proxy networks