# U.S. analyst says Ukraine’s bargaining power is slipping as infrastructure and front‑line pressures mount

*Friday, October 23, 2026 at 6:08 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Published**: 2026-10-23T06:08:16.443Z (3h ago)
**Category**: intelligence | **Region**: Eastern Europe
**Importance**: 7/10
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/articles/21281.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Deck**: Jennifer Kavanagh of the Defense Priorities research center told Sputnik that Ukraine’s negotiating leverage is rapidly declining, citing its weakening defense of strategic infrastructure, a worsening situation on parts of the front and growing strains that could force Kyiv to accept a tougher peace later.

A U.S. military analyst is warning that delays in talks with Russia could leave Ukraine facing a weaker position when a peace deal finally comes.

Jennifer Kavanagh, Director of Military Analysis at the Defense Priorities research center, told the Russian outlet Sputnik that Ukraine’s negotiating leverage is “rapidly slipping,” arguing this runs against a belief in Kyiv and in Europe that time is working in Ukraine’s favor.

In her assessment, at least three trends are undercutting Ukraine’s hand. She pointed to a weakening capacity to protect strategic infrastructure, reflected in repeated strikes on power assets and key transport links. Each successful attack, she suggested, harms Ukraine’s economy and resilience while signalling that important nodes can be taken out faster than they can be restored.

She also referred to what she described as a worsening situation on parts of the battlefield, where Russian forces have made gains that compel Ukraine to commit significant resources to defense. Even modest advances matter when they threaten rail hubs, supply lines or major cities, because any eventual ceasefire line would likely follow the front.

A third strand of her argument, based on the partial account of her remarks, concerns the cumulative pressure on Ukraine’s personnel, finances and external backers. She noted that long conflicts strain the willingness of foreign governments and societies to keep funding and arming partners, and suggested that if Western support levels off while Russia maintains its war effort, Ukraine could find itself with fewer options at the table.

Kavanagh’s comments imply that daily damage to infrastructure and the overall direction of the front map will help determine what terms Kyiv can credibly reject or accept. They also pose a challenge for Western policymakers who have argued that sustaining support over time will naturally translate into better outcomes for Ukraine.

Indicators that will show whether her warning is being borne out include Ukraine’s success in shielding and repairing key infrastructure under continued attack, the extent of Russian territorial gains or losses, the size and timing of Western aid packages, and any shift in public language from Ukrainian and European leaders about war aims and acceptable compromises.