# [WARNING] US pauses Iran strikes but threatens renewed bombing tomorrow

*Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 12:46 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-06-11T00:46:37.942Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, geopolitics, MiddleEast, riskPremium
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/9927.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: President Trump has publicly declared that current US strikes on Iran will ‘stop shortly’ after what he claims was direct contact with Iranian officials, but warned he will ‘bomb the shit out of them’ again tomorrow if no deal is reached. This introduces a short-term de‑escalation in actual kinetic activity yet preserves very high headline risk and the probability of renewed attacks on Iranian energy and coastal infrastructure.

## Detail

1) What happened: In a Fox News interview, Trump stated that US bombing of Iran will pause ‘shortly’ and then an ‘end’ to the current campaign was announced. He claims top Iranian officials asked him to stop the attacks. Iranian state media immediately denied any such contact, framing it as a US climb‑down. In the same interview Trump warned that if Tehran does not agree to a deal, the US will ‘bomb the shit out of them again tomorrow’. This comes after at least two waves of strikes on southern Iran, including prior reports of impacts near Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Bushehr and potentially South Pars‑adjacent infrastructure (which was already under a separate market alert).

2) Supply/demand impact: The immediate implication is a lower near‑term probability of additional damage to Iranian export or production infrastructure overnight, moderating the most acute tail risk to supply. However, Iran’s retaliatory posture (formal threats of forceful response, Hormuz closure claims, and ROE against shipping) suggests no fundamental reduction in regional risk. Net‑net, this is a modest de‑escalation in realized kinetic activity but not in underlying confrontation; thus physical supply risk remains elevated at a multi‑week horizon.

3) Affected assets and bias: For crude benchmarks, this development slightly tempers the upside move driven by fears of an open‑ended US air campaign against Iranian oil/gas facilities, but keeps a significant geopolitical premium in place. Expect intraday whipsaw: initial relief rallies in risk assets and partial pullback in Brent/WTI could be faded as markets refocus on Iran’s threats to Hormuz and possibility of renewed US attacks within 24 hours. Volatility and front‑end implieds in oil, Gulf FX, and regional credit stay bid.

4) Historical precedent: Similar ‘pause with threat’ signaling occurred during US‑Iran escalations in early 2020 (post‑Soleimani) and various US‑Iraq campaigns, where markets partially retraced spikes but maintained an elevated risk premium until the pattern of behaviour stabilized.

5) Duration: The impact is short‑term and highly path‑dependent. If no further strikes occur in the next 24–72 hours and Hormuz remains demonstrably open, risk premium can compress meaningfully. If threats materialize into renewed bombardment, the market will quickly reprice to the upper end of earlier spike levels.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Middle East sovereign CDS, Gold, S&P 500 energy sector, EM FX (oil importers)