# [WARNING] US halts Iran strikes but threatens renewed bombing tomorrow

*Thursday, June 11, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-06-11T00:26:49.052Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, ENERGY, GEOPOLITICAL_RISK, RISK_PREMIUM, US_IRAN
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/9925.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: President Trump has announced a pause in U.S. strikes on Iran, claiming Iranian officials asked him to stop, while simultaneously threatening to ‘bomb the shit out of them’ tomorrow if no deal is reached. This temporarily lowers immediate escalation odds but keeps a very high tail risk priced into energy markets, particularly around Hormuz.

## Detail

1) What happened:
Trump told Fox News that current U.S. attacks on Iran will stop shortly and effectively announced the end of tonight’s campaign (22, 25, 31, 33, 48, 68, 103, 104). He claims to have spoken directly with top Iranian officials who requested a halt to bombing (26, 62, 64, 68), a claim Tehran publicly rejects as a ‘lie’ and a face-saving retreat (21, 43, 62, 102). In the same interview, Trump warned that if Iran does not agree to a deal, the U.S. will ‘bomb the shit out of them tomorrow’ (1, 8, 24, 31, 44, 66). This creates a highly unstable pause: operational tempo is slowing for the moment, but both sides’ rhetoric remains confrontational and Iran has linked its Hormuz-closure posture to continued U.S. ‘aggression’. 

2) Supply/demand impact:
The pause marginally reduces the immediate probability of fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal and energy-related assets over the next several hours, which is modestly bearish relative to a scenario of continuous escalation through the night. However, the explicit threat of renewed attacks tomorrow and Iran’s stated intent to respond ‘forcefully and decisively’ (69, 105) keep the probability of further military action in the 24–72 hour window elevated. There is no direct restoration or loss of oil/gas supply from this announcement alone; the impact is entirely via risk premium on expectations for future conflict around Iranian production, export infrastructure, and Hormuz transit.

3) Affected assets and direction:
– Brent/WTI: The announcement should moderate the *upper* tail of intraday spikes but keep prices well bid. Expect high intraday volatility: initial knee-jerk softness vs. pre-announcement highs, followed by stabilization at an elevated level as markets digest the threat of renewed strikes.
– Gold and classic safe havens: May give back part of the highest panic bid but remain supported.
– Volatility (oil options, equity indices): Stays elevated; skew remains bid for upside crude calls.

4) Historical precedent:
Similar ‘pause with threat’ dynamics were seen during 2019 U.S.–Iran incidents and the 2020 U.S.–Iran missile exchange, where brief de-escalation signals reduced extreme tail pricing but left an enduring risk premium in energy and Gulf assets for weeks.

5) Duration:
The effect is intrinsically short-term (hours to a couple of days) and contingent on whether tomorrow brings renewed strikes or diplomatic movement. For now, it tempers but does not unwind the larger Hormuz and Iran supply-risk premium.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gold, S&P 500 Energy Index, Gulf equity indices, Oil volatility (OVX)