# [WARNING] Iraq, Kurdistan output at 1.5 mbpd amid export disruptions

*Monday, June 8, 2026 at 7:37 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-06-08T19:37:36.373Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, OPECplus, Iraq, supply
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/9601.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Iraq’s oil ministry reports combined Iraq–Kurdistan production near 1.5 million bpd as OPEC+ prepares to raise targets next month, noting that regional export disruptions persist. The figure implies still‑constrained northern exports versus pre‑halt levels, limiting downside to prices even as the bloc signals future supply increases.

## Detail

Iraq’s oil ministry states that Iraq and the Kurdistan Region are currently producing nearly 1.5 million barrels per day as OPEC+ heads toward a scheduled production target increase next month, with ‘ongoing disruptions to regional oil exports’ highlighted. While the report lacks full national context, the reference is clearly to the northern Iraqi/Kurdistan flows historically exported via the Iraq–Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan, which have been periodically curtailed since 2023 legal and political disputes.

Pre‑disruption, combined Kurdish and northern Iraqi exports via Ceyhan were on the order of 400–500 kbpd. The current 1.5 mbpd figure suggests that, even if some volumes are being redirected to domestic refineries or truck exports, pipeline exports remain structurally below pre‑halt norms. With OPEC+ signaling a forthcoming, but still conditional, step‑up in collective production, markets will reassess how much of that nominal increase is actually deliverable if key members like Iraq remain constrained in specific export corridors.

Near term, this supports a modestly tighter effective supply outlook versus what headline OPEC+ quotas might suggest. The direct effect on global balances is limited (sub‑0.5 mbpd), but against a backdrop of heightened Middle East risk premia and Red Sea disruptions, continued under‑utilization of northern Iraqi export capacity removes a potential source of incremental barrels that could have capped prices. Brent and Dubai curves may retain backwardation, and spreads between Mediterranean and alternative supplies (e.g., U.S. Gulf Coast, West Africa) could stay firm.

Historically, previous stoppages of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan route have supported regional physical differentials and contributed to episodes of >1% moves in Brent on days when market participants adjusted Iraqi supply expectations. The impact here is more about confirming a structurally impaired corridor than announcing a new outage, so price effects are smaller but still relevant in aggregate with other Middle East risks.

Duration appears medium‑term given the political deadlock between Baghdad, Erbil, and Ankara over revenue sharing, contracts, and arbitration fallout. Unless a comprehensive agreement is reached, northern Iraqi/Kurdish exports are unlikely to normalize, keeping a modest but persistent bullish bias on Med crude benchmarks.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, Iraqi crude OSPs, Kurdistan crude (KBT, Taq Taq) where traded OTC, Mediterranean refinery margins, Urals and Basrah differentials in Med