# [WARNING] Iran Confirms Major Progress in US Talks on Hormuz Reopening

*Monday, May 25, 2026 at 8:29 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-05-25T08:29:25.766Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: Iran, UnitedStates, StraitOfHormuz, Oil, Shipping, MiddleEast, EnergyMarkets
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/8039.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: At about 08:01 UTC, Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that a large portion of issues in negotiations with the United States has been agreed, while cautioning that no one can yet claim an agreement is imminent and criticizing US policy vacillation. These remarks, combined with earlier indications of a preliminary deal and a 30‑day timeline to normalize Strait of Hormuz traffic, solidify expectations of a forthcoming reopening but underscore lingering political risk.

## Detail

Between 07:34 and 08:01 UTC on 25 May 2026, multiple official and media reports clarified the status of US–Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and the broader ceasefire framework.

Key new development at 08:01 UTC: Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly stated that the negotiating parties have “reached a conclusion on a large portion of the topics under discussion,” effectively confirming substantial progress in talks with Washington. However, the spokesperson stressed that it is premature to say the signing of an agreement is imminent and explicitly blamed “institutionalized vacillation” in US policymaking, citing repeated position changes over hours or days.

These comments follow, and partially qualify, earlier reports at 07:34–07:35 UTC that the United States and Iran have agreed on a preliminary deal under which Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that shipping traffic is expected to return to pre‑war conditions within roughly 30 days. Separate reports at 07:19–07:34 UTC from the Iranian side clarified that the draft memorandum of understanding excludes explicit provisions on control or management of the Strait, and at 07:34 UTC Iran stated it will not impose tolls on Hormuz transits.

Actors and chain of command: On the Iranian side, statements are being issued by the Foreign Ministry, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, re‑elected this morning and described as a strongman figure, likely wields significant influence over final consent to any arrangement. On the US side, the criticism of policy volatility suggests negotiations span the White House, State Department, Pentagon, and possibly Congressional interlocutors. The IRGC Navy, which has operational control over Hormuz disruptions, will be critical to implementing any reopening order.

Military and security implications: Confirmation that most issues are agreed, combined with Iranian assurances on no tolls and the omission of explicit control language, points toward a de‑escalatory trajectory in the Gulf. If implemented, this would lower the risk of naval incidents, tanker seizures, and missile/drone attacks near the chokepoint. However, Iran’s emphasis that no signing is imminent and that US positions remain unstable means that miscalculation risk persists over the next several weeks. Regional actors—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel—will watch closely for signs that the IRGC accepts the arrangements or seeks to preserve leverage through grey‑zone harassment.

Market and economic impact: Oil markets have already started to price in a prospective reopening and ceasefire extension, with prior alerts noting downward pressure on crude. Today’s Foreign Ministry statement reinforces the base case of normalization within about 30 days, which supports a gradual compression of the Gulf war risk premium in Brent and WTI. Tanker rates and shipping insurance premia should ease as underwriters anticipate reduced war‑risk exposure, though full repricing will wait on a signed accord and visible de‑escalation at sea.

Iran’s portrayal of US policy as erratic will temper market confidence in the timeline: traders are likely to keep a non‑trivial probability that talks stall or enforcement falters, limiting the immediate downside in oil prices and maintaining some safe‑haven bid in gold and US Treasuries. Currencies of major oil importers (e.g., JPY, INR, EUR) stand to benefit modestly if oil volatility subsides, while Gulf energy exporters may trade more on fundamentals than on acute war‑risk.

24–48 hour outlook: Expect continued tactical leaks and positioning from both sides, as negotiators seek to lock in remaining points on sanctions relief, verification, and security guarantees. Iran may continue public messaging that downplays imminence to preserve bargaining leverage and domestic credibility. Markets will focus on any concrete, verifiable gestures—such as a visible reduction in IRGC naval posturing or formal scheduling of a signing ceremony. Absent a breakdown in talks or a significant new incident in the Gulf, the default scenario remains gradual de‑escalation and a move toward restored pre‑war shipping conditions by late June, but with headline risk and intraday price spikes on any negative news.

**MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT:**
Crude remains biased lower on increased probability of Hormuz normalization, but Iran’s warning about US policy volatility tempers the downside, preserving some geopolitical risk premium. Tanker/shipping equities should price in improving forward volumes, while Gulf risk assets and EM FX linked to oil exporters may benefit. Safe-haven demand for gold remains supported by residual deal and enforcement uncertainty.