# [WARNING] Trump Delays Planned US Strike On Iran For Talks

*Monday, May 18, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-05-18T22:47:12.710Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, geopolitics, MiddleEast, oil, riskPremium
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/7274.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Donald Trump says a US military attack on Iran, scheduled for tomorrow, has been postponed 2–3 days at the request of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar amid what he describes as “serious negotiations” and a “very good chance” of a deal. This temporarily reduces immediate war-risk premium in crude but keeps a significant tail risk alive given only a short delay and continued regional tension.

## Detail

Multiple reports in the last hour quote Donald Trump stating that a planned US military attack on Iran, originally set for tomorrow, has been postponed by 2–3 days following requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, who believe they are close to brokering a deal. Trump further notes there is a “very good chance” that the parties could “work something out.” Iran, per separate reporting, claims to be prepared for any scenario as a fragile truce weakens.

This is a high‑impact risk‑premium event for energy markets. The news confirms that (1) a concrete strike plan existed for the near term, and (2) it has not been canceled, only delayed for a narrow negotiation window. The Strait of Hormuz handles ~17–18 mb/d of crude and condensate and significant LNG volumes from Qatar; any US‑Iran kinetic exchange raises non‑trivial odds of Iranian harassment of shipping, missile/drone attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, or disruption of Hormuz traffic. Even a brief closure or insurance-driven slowdown could remove several million bpd from the market on a temporary basis.

In the immediate term, this headline should pull some of the intraday war premium out of flat price and front‑end time spreads, as traders price a lower probability of strikes within the next 24 hours. However, confirmation that a strike was scheduled and merely postponed, rather than walked back, keeps a pronounced upside skew in oil and product prices for the coming days. Options vol in Brent/WTI and crack spreads is likely to stay bid; Gulf producers’ spreads versus benchmarks may widen on perceived infrastructure and shipping risk.

Historical analogues include the 2019–2020 US‑Iran escalatory cycles (Abqaiq/Khurais attacks, Soleimani strike), which moved Brent 5–15% on headline risk. Current impact is likely somewhat smaller absent an actual attack, but still sufficient for >1% moves. If negotiations fail and military action resumes, upside risk to Brent in the +5–10% range over a few sessions is plausible; if a credible de‑escalation deal emerges, risk premium could bleed out over 1–3 weeks.

Net: near‑term easing versus earlier worst‑case fears, but with elevated three‑ to seven‑day upside risk in energy and safe‑haven assets.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gasoil futures, RBOB gasoline, Qatar LNG-linked contracts, Middle East crude differentials (Dubai/Oman), Gold, USD/IRR, GCC sovereign CDS, Oil volatility (OVX, Brent options)