# [WARNING] US Weighs New Iran Strikes As Iranian Regime Arms Public *Monday, May 18, 2026 at 6:16 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk* **Detected**: 2026-05-18T06:16:14.503Z (4h ago) **Tags**: US, Iran, Israel, MiddleEast, Oil, GulfShipping, Defense, Markets **Sources**: OSINT **Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/7157.md **Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries --- **Summary**: Around 06:07–06:09 UTC, US media reports state that President Trump met top national security officials to discuss new strikes on Iran, while parallel OSINT from Syria/Iraq indicates aircraft possibly returning from the Iranian theater. Concurrently, Iranian state television is broadcasting live firearms training, including machine‑gun use and symbolic fire at a UAE flag, and training segments for women. These moves point to increased risk of US–Iran and regional escalation with direct implications for oil markets and wider risk sentiment. ## Detail 1) What happened and confirmed details At approximately 06:07 UTC on 18 May 2026, reports citing American media state that US President Donald Trump met with senior national security officials to determine “next steps in the war against Iran.” Report 3 specifies the attendees: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and special envoy Steve Witkoff, indicating a high‑level, whole‑of‑government decision forum. The report adds that the Pentagon has prepared options for further strikes on Iran. Parallel reporting from 06:04 UTC (Report 6) describes a Syrian shepherd in the Badia al‑Hamad area of southeastern Syria (near the Iraqi border) filming two low‑flying aircraft that allegedly had “just returned from the Iranian region.” This follows prior New York Times reporting (yesterday) of Israeli military bases established on Iraqi territory, and OSINT accounts are amplifying claims that these aircraft transited from operations near or over Iran. Simultaneously, at 06:06–06:07 UTC (Reports 4 and 17), Iranian television is broadcasting firearms instruction for the general public, including how to operate and assemble/disassemble machine guns and AK‑pattern rifles, explicitly including training segments for women. One segment reportedly includes live firing in studio at a flag of the United Arab Emirates, a pointed signal toward a key Gulf rival. 2) Who is involved and chain of command On the US side, the decision cell involves the President, Vice President, Secretary of State, CIA Director, and a designated Iran envoy. That combination implies both kinetic and diplomatic/economic options are on the table, with the Pentagon already tasked to provide strike packages. Any follow‑on strikes would likely be executed by CENTCOM assets (air and naval) in coordination with Israeli operations already ongoing across Syria, Iraq, and potentially near Iranian borders. On the Iranian side, state TV programming of firearms training is ultimately controlled by regime leadership — likely coordinated between the IRGC, Basij, and the Ministry of Culture/IRIB. Instruction for women and symbolic targeting of a UAE flag indicates both domestic mobilization messaging and external deterrence signaling toward Gulf Arab states, particularly those hosting US assets or aligned with Israel. 3) Immediate military and security implications The US meeting to consider new strikes signals that Washington views the “war against Iran” as ongoing and potentially entering another round. Depending on targeting (IRGC infrastructure, missile/drone facilities, naval assets, or economic nodes like refineries or export terminals), this could trigger Iranian retaliation across several vectors: missile/drone attacks on US positions in Iraq/Syria, escalation via proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, or attempted harassment of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli activity, suggested by low‑flying aircraft in Syrian–Iraqi border regions allegedly returning from Iranian space, indicates a continued or expanded covert/deniable campaign against Iranian assets and supply lines. The combination of US deliberations and Israeli operational tempo increases the risk that Iran perceives a coordinated broader offensive. Internally, televised weapons training for civilians and regime supporters suggests the leadership is preparing for potential unrest, fearing that external pressure or strikes could catalyze protests or an uprising. Arming or training loyalists for urban combat could raise the risk of violent internal clashes. The segment targeting a UAE flag elevates the risk of Iranian or proxy messaging and possible operations against UAE or other Gulf interests, including cyberattacks, infrastructure probing, or maritime incidents. 4) Market and economic impact Energy: Any new US strike on Iran, particularly if it hits energy infrastructure or IRGC naval forces, will raise the probability of Iranian disruption to oil exports from the Gulf or attempted interference with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Even without immediate disruption, market participants will likely re‑price geopolitical risk, supporting higher Brent and WTI prices and volatility. Shipping insurance premia for Gulf routes, especially for tankers and LNG carriers, would likely rise. Equities and credit: Global risk assets could come under pressure if confirmed strikes occur, with airlines, shipping, and energy‑intensive industries particularly sensitive. Conversely, defense stocks (US and Israeli) and cybersecurity firms may benefit from heightened tensions. Credit spreads for Middle Eastern sovereigns and corporates may widen on risk repricing. FX and rates: Safe‑haven flows are likely into USD, JPY, CHF, and potentially gold, especially if there are signs of sustained confrontation. Sentiment around GCC currencies, while formally pegged, may deteriorate at the margin. Emerging market sovereigns with energy import dependence could face added pressure via higher fuel costs. 5) Likely next 24–48 hour developments • Watch for official US statements or leaks detailing the outcome of the Trump national security meeting. A sudden presidential address, Pentagon briefing, or NOTAMs/airspace warnings over the Gulf would be leading indicators of imminent strikes. • Monitor CENTCOM and IDF activity across Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf; any uptick in airborne ISR, tanker tracks, or naval maneuvering near Hormuz would be significant. • Follow Iranian state messaging: further militarized TV content, mobilization orders for Basij/IRGC auxiliaries, or public calls to arm volunteers would confirm internal security fears. Additional symbolic threats toward UAE/Saudi or explicit references to Hormuz would materially raise maritime risk. • Market desks should be prepared for gap moves in oil and gold at the next major trading sessions, with potential intraday spikes on any confirmed kinetic incident. Hedging strategies for Gulf shipping exposure and airlines should be revisited. Overall, these convergent signals justify elevating posture on the Iran file, with a significant probability of new US or Israeli kinetic actions and corresponding Iranian or proxy responses in the near term. **MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT:** Heightened risk premium for crude (Brent/WTI) and Gulf shipping, potential bid for gold and defensive FX (USD, JPY, CHF). Regional EM FX (IRR unofficial, TRY, ILS, GCC pegs sentiment) and airlines/shipping equities could see pressure. Any confirmed US or Israeli strike on Iranian territory or infrastructure would likely push oil materially higher and pressure global equities.