# [WARNING] Trump Vows Iran War Will Continue as UAE Boosts Hormuz Bypass *Friday, May 15, 2026 at 9:21 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk* **Detected**: 2026-05-15T09:21:22.055Z (8h ago) **Tags**: IranWar, UnitedStates, UAE, Oil, StraitOfHormuz, MiddleEast, EnergySecurity **Sources**: OSINT **Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/6875.md **Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries --- **Summary**: Between 08:13–09:01 UTC on 15 May 2026, President Trump reaffirmed that the “military destruction of Iran will continue,” while the U.S. Congress again failed—by a single vote—to restrict his Iran war powers. Simultaneously, at 09:00 UTC, the UAE announced it is fast‑tracking a pipeline to double oil exports that bypass the Strait of Hormuz by 2027. These moves signal a prolonged Iran conflict, sustained war premium in oil, and a structural shift in Gulf energy logistics. ## Detail 1. What happened and confirmed details • At 08:13 UTC (Report 3 & 23), Iranian and regional sources highlighted that after Trump’s return trip trajectory to the U.S., he stated in an interview on Chinese soil that the “military destruction of Iran will continue,” and that the U.S. rejected Iran’s 14‑point proposal to end the war. • At 09:01 UTC (Report 22), U.S. congressional reporting indicated that, for the third time, the House failed to approve a measure limiting President Trump’s war powers in relation to the ongoing military operation in Iran. The vote was a 212–212 tie, meaning the proposal failed by a single vote, effectively leaving existing presidential authorities intact. • Around the same window, Report 1 (filed 08:29 UTC) noted WTI at about $104 and Brent around $108 as of early May 15, with commentary explicitly tying the price level to the Iran conflict and expectations that “the war will resume very soon” in a more intense phase. • At 09:00 UTC (Report 26), the UAE announced a fast‑tracked project to double capacity of its export pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, from 1.5 million bpd to 3 million bpd, with a target in‑service date of 2027. 2. Actors and chain of command • United States: President Trump directly sets the operational intent toward Iran, backed by the Department of Defense and CENTCOM for execution. Congressional failure to impose new war‑powers constraints preserves wide latitude for further strikes or escalation. • Iran: Leadership is attempting to negotiate via a 14‑point peace proposal, now publicly rebuffed. Iran’s military and IRGC will interpret Trump’s remarks as confirmation of continued U.S. offensive operations. • UAE: Led by President Mohammed bin Zayed and the energy/security establishment, Abu Dhabi is adjusting its long‑term posture by reducing dependence on the Hormuz chokepoint, in direct response to current and anticipated Iran‑related risks. 3. Immediate military and security implications (next 24–48 hours) • Strategic intent: Trump’s explicit statement that military destruction “will continue,” along with rejection of Iran’s peace framework, signals that a pause or de‑escalation is unlikely in the short term. While no new strikes are reported in this 30‑minute batch, planners should assume continued or renewed U.S. operations against Iranian targets. • Diplomatic deadlock: Iran’s proposal being dismissed removes, for now, a structured off‑ramp. Expect Tehran to respond with increased asymmetric pressure—regional proxy activity, missile/drone harassment at sea, or cyber operations. • Gulf posture: UAE’s move underscores regional expectations that Hormuz will remain a high‑risk theater for years. It may also embolden other Gulf producers to explore similar options or accelerate diversification of export routes. • Israel–Gulf dimension: Report 27 confirms that Israel’s chief of staff secretly visited the UAE during the Iran war, meeting MBZ, despite formal denials. This indicates deepening operational coordination against Iran, raising Tehran’s perception of encirclement and increasing the risk of Iran targeting Emirati or Israeli interests. 4. Market and economic impact • Oil: With WTI above $100 and Brent around $108 as of pre‑market May 15, the combination of entrenched war‑intent and policy gridlock in Washington strengthens the conflict risk premium. Near term, any sign of renewed large‑scale U.S. or Israeli strikes on Iranian territory or infrastructure will likely push crude higher and increase intraday volatility. The UAE’s 2027 pipeline expansion, while structurally bearish for extreme Hormuz‑closure scenarios, does not relieve the next 12–24 months of risk. • Gold and safe havens: Expect continued support for gold and potentially for the Swiss franc and yen, as markets price in a longer, more entrenched Iran conflict without an obvious diplomatic track. • Equities: Global energy equities, particularly integrated oil majors and service companies leveraged to Middle East volumes, stand to benefit from sustained higher prices. Conversely, airlines, shipping, and energy‑intensive manufacturing face higher input costs. Defense contractors exposed to U.S., Gulf, and Israeli procurement are likely to remain bid. • Currencies: Petrocurrencies (CAD, NOK, some EM producers) may strengthen on oil price resilience. EM importers (India, Turkey, parts of Southeast Asia) face terms‑of‑trade deterioration if crude remains above $100. 5. Likely developments in the next 24–48 hours • Iran theater: Watch for either renewed U.S. strike packages, increased Iranian missile/drone activity against Gulf or Israeli targets, or proxy escalations in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Red Sea as Tehran responds to the rejection of its peace proposal. • U.S. domestic: Narrow war‑powers vote suggests continued political contention in Washington; another legislative attempt is possible but unlikely to change operational realities in the near term. • Energy policy: Expect more detail from the UAE on routing, financing, and partners for the expanded pipeline, and potential signaling from Saudi Arabia or other Gulf exporters about their own contingencies for Hormuz risk. • Market reaction: Traders will key on any concrete sign of resumed high‑intensity strikes or attacks on shipping. Short‑term: elevated volatility and a bias higher in crude and defense names; medium‑term: increasing investor attention to structural de‑risking of Hormuz and re‑pricing of Gulf infrastructure assets. **MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT:** War risk to Iran remains elevated with explicit U.S. intent to continue strikes and no congressional constraint; oil already above $100 and likely to stay under upward pressure. UAE’s Hormuz‑bypass pipeline plan is bearish for long‑term Hormuz closure premia but confirms sustained geopolitical risk. Near term: higher volatility in crude, support for gold, pressure on airlines/shipping, and possible incremental bid for defense names.