# [WARNING] Russia Ends Truce, Prepares Major Strike Wave on Ukraine

*Monday, May 11, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-05-11T23:11:26.024Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: Russia, Ukraine, Airstrikes, Missiles, Drones, Europe, Defense, Commodities
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/6493.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Around 22:40–22:50 UTC on 11 May, multiple OSINT reports confirmed that the 3‑day ceasefire in Ukraine has ended, with Russian forces resuming high‑intensity bombardment across several fronts. Use of KAB glide bombs, heavy artillery, and Geran‑2 drones has restarted, and preparations are reportedly underway for a large combined missile–drone attack involving strategic bombers. The shift raises immediate risks to Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and air defenses after a brief operational pause.

## Detail

Between 22:40 and 22:50 UTC on 11 May 2026, several open‑source military channels (Reports 2 and 42) reported the formal end of the 3‑day ceasefire in the Russia–Ukraine war and a rapid return to high‑intensity operations. Russian forces have resumed launches of KAB precision glide bombs and heavy artillery shelling, while Geran‑2 (Shahed‑type) drone launches were observed from multiple locations. In parallel, these sources note visible preparations for a large‑scale, combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine involving strategic bombers and other long‑range missile platforms.

The actors involved are Russian Aerospace Forces and associated missile units under the Russian General Staff, likely including bomber assets from Long‑Range Aviation and regional missile brigades. On the Ukrainian side, air defense, air force, and ground units will be forced to transition quickly from a limited ceasefire posture back to full defensive operations, including dispersal of assets and reactivation of layered air defenses around key urban and energy nodes.

Militarily, the end of the truce removes any near‑term window for force rotation, repair, and civilian humanitarian movement. The reported preparation of a large combined strike package suggests Russia intends to use the post‑ceasefire period to stress and probe Ukraine’s air defense network, potentially targeting command nodes, power infrastructure, logistics hubs, and airfields. Renewed KAB usage indicates continued Russian air superiority close to frontline areas, enabling stand‑off strikes against fortified positions and urban edges. This combination could generate new waves of internal displacement and localized infrastructure outages if strikes are carried out at scale.

From a market perspective, the development marginally raises geopolitical risk but does not yet constitute a structural shift in global supply. European sovereigns and equities most exposed to Ukraine war sentiment may see modest risk‑off flows. Defense stocks, especially missile and air‑defense manufacturers in the US and Europe, may benefit as the intensity of long‑range strike warfare remains high and Ukrainian resupply needs grow. Gold and the US dollar could attract incremental safe‑haven demand if the anticipated Russian strike wave causes major civilian or infrastructure damage, but current information does not yet imply a direct shock to global oil or gas flows. However, if future strikes hit Ukrainian Black Sea ports, grain terminals, or cross‑border power links, wheat and corn markets could quickly price in renewed export and planting disruption.

Over the next 24–48 hours, indicators to watch include: confirmation of strategic bomber launches from Russian bases, activation of Ukraine‑wide air raid alerts, real‑time reporting of missile and drone flight paths, and any hits on critical infrastructure (electric grids, rail junctions, fuel depots, or ports). Diplomatic reactions from NATO capitals may focus on condemning the end of the ceasefire and could accelerate ongoing discussions on additional air‑defense and long‑range strike aid to Ukraine. If the reported large‑scale strike package materializes overnight or within the next day, we should be prepared for rapid follow‑on alerts regarding civilian casualties, infrastructure damage, and any secondary impacts on regional logistics.

**MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT:**
Resumption of high‑intensity fighting and indications of a major Russian strike package slightly increase geopolitical risk premia, particularly for European assets, defense stocks, and safe‑haven flows (gold, USD). Direct commodity impact is limited for now but any follow‑on strikes on energy, grain export, or port infrastructure could quickly move wheat, corn, and European power/gas markets.