# [WARNING] Powerful El Niño Forecast for 2026–27 Raises Ag Supply Risks

*Friday, November 6, 2026 at 9:26 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-11-06T21:26:16.853Z (1h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, agriculture, weather, El Nino, Latin America, supply-side-shock
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/29457.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Ecuador’s ERFEN report suggests the intensity of the coming 2026–27 El Niño may match the extreme 1982 and 1998 events. Such episodes historically drive major disruptions to South American crops and marine yields, with global spillovers to grains, softs, and fishmeal markets.

## Detail

1) What happened:
A new report from Ecuador’s ERFEN committee indicates that the projected El Niño intensity between late 2026 and 2027 could be comparable to the powerful 1982–83 and 1997–98 events. While this is a climate/forecast development rather than a geopolitical shock, El Niño at this strength materially affects global agricultural supply chains, fisheries, and infrastructure, particularly along the Pacific coast of South America.

2) Supply/demand impact:
A strong El Niño typically brings heavy rains and flooding to the Andean and coastal states (Ecuador, Peru, parts of Colombia) and drought/heat stress to parts of Southeast Asia and Australia. For commodities, the key risks are: disruptions to South American coffee, cocoa, banana, and sugarcane; infrastructure and port damage affecting exports from Ecuador and Peru; and changes in Pacific upwelling that cut fish catches and fishmeal production. On a 6–18 month horizon, this can translate into lower effective supply of fishmeal/oil (impacting global feed costs), pressure on key soft commodities, and localized food inflation in affected regions.

3) Affected assets and direction:
Primary markets affected include CBOT and ICE softs (coffee, sugar, cocoa), fishmeal/fishoil (impacting livestock and aquaculture input costs), and to a lesser extent corn/soy via altered planting and yield outcomes in South America and Asia. Directional bias is broadly bullish for softs and fishmeal, with optionality on grains and oilseeds depending on regional weather realization. Insurance and infrastructure‑related equities in the region also face higher risk.

4) Historical precedent:
The 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events were associated with pronounced price spikes in coffee, sugar, and fishmeal due to flooding and reduced catches along the Pacific coast of South America. They also contributed to weather anomalies in Asia that affected palm oil and rice.

5) Duration:
This is a medium‑ to long‑duration structural risk priced gradually rather than a one‑day shock. Markets will increasingly trade weather and crop headlines over the next 6–18 months, but the signal that a 1982/1998‑scale event is plausible is already relevant for forward curves in softs and for risk managers in feed and protein chains. Volatility and risk premia in weather‑sensitive ag contracts are likely to trend higher into 2027.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** ICE Coffee, ICE Sugar, ICE Cocoa, Fishmeal (Peru export), CBOT Soybeans, CBOT Corn, Palm Oil (BMD), Ecuador and Peru sovereign risk