# [WARNING] Fed Seen Sticking to Quarterly Hikes, Scraps 2025 Cuts

*Monday, October 26, 2026 at 7:43 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-10-26T07:43:40.278Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, FINANCIAL, MONETARY_POLICY, DEMAND_DESTRUCTION, USD
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/28027.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: The Financial Times reports the Fed will maintain quarterly rate hikes and has removed previously signaled 2025 insurance cuts. This hawkish shift supports a stronger dollar and higher real yields, pressuring broad commodities via tighter financial conditions and higher carry costs.

## Detail

According to the FT, the Federal Reserve intends to continue with a path of quarterly rate increases while scrapping prior guidance on potential 2025 ‘insurance’ rate cuts. If accurate, this marks a meaningfully more hawkish forward stance relative to market expectations that had built in eventual easing as inflation normalized.

For commodities, the transmission is primarily through the dollar, real yields, and global financial conditions. A more hawkish Fed trajectory tends to support USD strength versus G10 and EM currencies, raise real yields, and tighten liquidity. Historically, such configurations are negative for broad commodity indices in the absence of offsetting supply shocks, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, pressure EM demand, and tighten credit for inventory financing and trade.

Gold and silver are particularly sensitive: higher real yields and a firmer USD are typically bearish, encouraging profit-taking and flattening the forward curve. Industrial metals (copper, aluminum, zinc) and energy benchmarks like Brent and WTI may face demand-side headwinds from slower global growth expectations, especially in rate-sensitive sectors like construction and manufacturing. EM FX and high-yield sovereigns linked to commodity exports (e.g., BRL, ZAR, CLP) could see volatility and spread widening, amplifying local-currency price moves for fuels and food.

Compared with past episodes (e.g., 2018 Fed hiking cycle, 2022 early tightening), similar guidance shifts have frequently produced >1% daily moves in DXY and multi-percent pullbacks in gold and cyclical commodities on repricing days. The impact duration is potentially structural over the coming quarters as markets re-anchor to a higher-for-longer U.S. rate regime, though near-term price action will depend on confirmation from upcoming FOMC communications and data. Positioning risk is asymmetric if speculative longs are crowded in gold or industrial metals: a hawkish repricing could trigger accelerated liquidation.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** DXY, Gold, Silver, Copper, Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Bloomberg Commodity Index, EM FX (BRL, ZAR, CLP)