# [WARNING] US Says Gulf Oil Exports Now Exceed Pre‑War Levels

*Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 11:03 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-10-24T11:03:21.077Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, MiddleEast, Hormuz, supply
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/27858.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says crude exports from the Arabian Gulf have surpassed pre‑war levels despite Iranian disruption attempts. This signals resilient physical flows through Hormuz and may temper the upside in crude benchmarks by partly offsetting recent supply‑risk headlines.

## Detail

1) What happened:
According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, oil exports from the Arabian Gulf are now running above levels seen before the onset of the war with Iran. This implies producers and shippers in the region have maintained and even expanded outbound flows through the Strait of Hormuz despite ongoing Iranian harassment and now claims of mine attacks.

2) Supply/demand impact:
On a flow basis, this is a bearish‑to‑neutral counterweight to the heightened risk narrative. If Gulf exports have not just been preserved but increased, actual seaborne availability to key consuming regions (Europe, Asia) has improved versus early‑war expectations. This could reflect (a) higher loadings from Saudi/UAE/Qatar/Kuwait to capture elevated prices, (b) rerouted Iranian or sanctioned barrels using alternative arrangements, or (c) improved logistical measures (naval escorts, convoying) that mitigate effective disruption. In volume terms, even a 0.5–1.0 mb/d increase versus pre‑war can significantly ease prompt tightness and reduce fears of a supply crunch.

3) Affected assets and direction:
This statement is modestly bearish for crude flat price and especially for deferred contracts, as it challenges assumptions of structurally impaired Gulf export capacity. Time spreads could narrow at the back of the curve, while front‑month may remain elevated if security events continue. Tanker rates might remain high given increased volume and risk premia, but investor perception of catastrophic disruption risk (total Hormuz blockage) may soften at the margin. Risk assets in importing economies (equities, FX for oil‑importers like India and some Asian EMs) might benefit if markets see lower odds of extreme price spikes.

4) Historical precedent:
Similar dynamics occurred during the 1980s Tanker War and parts of the 2019–2020 Gulf tensions: despite frequent attacks and incidents, actual oil flows often remained robust, with producers and navies adjusting operations. Markets initially priced a heavy risk premium, which then partially eroded as sustained flow data came in stronger than feared.

5) Duration:
The impact is medium‑term rather than intraday: confirmation in export statistics will matter over coming weeks. As long as export volumes remain elevated and no large‑scale blockade materializes, the structural risk premium embedded in deferred crude contracts could gradually compress, though spot prices will still be sensitive to each new security incident.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Oman Crude futures, Asian refining margins, Indian Rupee, Emerging market FX of major importers