# [WARNING] Iran Hardliner Urges Attacks on Gulf Undersea Cables

*Monday, October 12, 2026 at 1:13 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-10-12T13:13:55.244Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, maritime, cyber, risk-premium
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/26288.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Hossein Shariatmadari, a key hardline figure close to Iran’s Supreme Leader, publicly called on Iran’s military and IRGC to target undersea fiber-optic cables in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. While not an official directive, such rhetoric raises tail risks of cyber and physical disruption to maritime communications and shipping logistics in a critical oil chokepoint.

## Detail

1) What happened:
Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper and a representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader at the publication, has urged Iran’s military and the IRGC to target international undersea fiber‑optic cables in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. This is not a government order, but Kayhan has historically acted as a signaling outlet for maximalist positions within the regime. In parallel, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has rebuffed U.S. claims over control of Hormuz and asserted it will “continue doing what we’re doing,” reinforcing a confrontational stance.

2) Supply/demand impact:
Cutting or damaging submarine cables in the Gulf and Hormuz region would not directly curtail physical oil flows, but it could degrade vessel tracking, port operations, and real‑time communications used in shipping and energy trading. In a worst‑case scenario, multiple cable outages could create operational frictions for the ~17–18 mb/d of crude and condensate and sizable LNG volumes transiting Hormuz. Even if no attack occurs, the market will price higher odds of unconventional Iranian hybrid actions (cyber, cables, drones) that complicate navigation and insurance.

3) Affected assets and direction:
Brent and Dubai crude are likely to gain additional risk premium, particularly in front-end vols and time spreads, as traders hedge a small probability of logistics disruption around Hormuz. Freight rates for VLCCs and LR tankers in AG–East and AG–West routes could firm on higher war‑risk pricing. Regional equities and currencies (notably GCC FX pegs via risk sentiment and CDS) might see modest pressure. Given no physical damage yet, the move should be more pronounced in options and volatility than in flat price, but a >1% move in crude is plausible on heightened rhetoric alone.

4) Historical precedent:
Similar to episodes when Iranian officials threatened to “close Hormuz” (notably 2011–2012 and 2018–2019), markets typically priced in a non‑trivial but contained risk premium, with spikes when threats coincided with tanker incidents. The specific focus on undersea cables echoes recent concerns in Europe and the North Sea that critical seabed infrastructure is a vulnerable chokepoint.

5) Duration of impact:
Absent a concrete attack, the effect is likely transient (days to a couple of weeks), but it adds to a broader, persistent Middle East risk regime that has already thickened due to the Saudi–Houthi escalation. Any unexplained cable outage or maritime incident in the Gulf in coming weeks would now be interpreted through this lens and could trigger larger second‑round moves.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, WTI, Tanker freight (AG–East VLCC), GCC sovereign CDS