# [WARNING] US Ends Iraq Combat Mission as New Attacks Hit Tankers in Strait of Hormuz *Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 1:07 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk* **Detected**: 2026-09-30T13:07:02.283Z (1h ago) **Tags**: Iraq, UnitedStates, Iran, StraitOfHormuz, Oil, Shipping, MiddleEastSecurity, EnergyMarkets **Sources**: OSINT **Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/24580.md **Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries --- **Summary**: Within hours of CENTCOM confirming the end of Operation Inherent Resolve and the departure of the last US forces from Erbil Air Base, reporting at 12:52–12:59 UTC points to three commercial vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The combination removes a longstanding US military backstop in Iraq while heightening immediate threat to a waterway that carries roughly a fifth of traded crude, forcing governments, shippers, and energy markets to reprice Middle East risk. ## Detail U.S. Central Command announced today that Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq has officially ended and that the last U.S. forces and equipment have departed Erbil Air Base, with the command asserting that Iraqi security forces can now "unilaterally manage threats to their homeland" and that U.S. forces remain ready to respond to any ISIS threats that arise. Roughly 15–20 minutes later, at 12:52–12:59 UTC, Saudi outlet Al-Arabiya and the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that three vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours, a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG flows. Confirmed details so far: The CENTCOM statement (Report 35, 12:46:40 UTC) explicitly declares Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq over and confirms the physical departure of the last U.S. forces from Erbil, which has been the main U.S. hub in Iraqi Kurdistan. Parallel reporting from Al-Arabiya and UKMTO (Report 18, 12:52:01 UTC) cites three separate vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. No firm attribution, cargo types, or precise coordinates are yet given, but the incident comes on top of earlier reports of multiple ships hit by projectiles in the strait already flagged in prior center alerts. Taken together, this points to a pattern rather than an isolated incident. Confidence is medium: the Iraq withdrawal is sourced to an official CENTCOM communication (high confidence), while Hormuz incident details remain early but are backed by both a regional outlet and the UK’s maritime advisory body (credible but still developing). The human and industry stakes are immediate for crews transiting Hormuz and for energy-importing states in Asia and Europe. Ship operators, charterers, and insurers now face a fast-degrading risk environment in a waterway that already carries roughly 17–20% of global seaborne crude and a significant share of Qatar’s LNG exports. A cluster of attacks heightens the probability of casualties and hull damage and will likely trigger diversions, slow-steaming, or temporary pauses by more risk-averse owners. On land, the end of the U.S. combat mission in Iraq shifts the security burden squarely onto Iraqi security forces and Iran-aligned militias; Kurds in the north lose a visible American tripwire that has deterred both ISIS remnants and pressure from Baghdad and Tehran-aligned formations. Strategically, the closure of Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq reduces the day-to-day U.S. military footprint just as the Gulf maritime domain becomes more kinetic. Iran and its proxies may interpret the Iraq drawdown as a sign of reduced American appetite for sustained ground commitments, even as Washington retains strike and naval capabilities in the region. That could encourage bolder harassment at sea, calibrated below the threshold of a large-scale U.S. response, or it could reflect an already-ongoing campaign of pressure linked to sanctions, Gaza-related tensions, or internal Iranian politics. For Baghdad, the departure from Erbil will re-open debates over the presence of foreign forces, the security of key oil fields in the Kirkuk and Kurdish regions, and the leverage of Iran-aligned militias over federal decision-making. Markets and economies will feel this through several channels. In the near term, Brent and WTI are exposed to upside spikes as trading desks factor in higher war-risk premiums for Hormuz transit and the chance of additional disruptions or a miscalculation involving regional navies. War-risk insurance rates and freight for VLCCs and product tankers through the strait are likely to widen, with majors and large trading houses better able to absorb the cost than smaller regional players. LNG markets, particularly in Asia, will monitor for any signs of Qatari flows being delayed or rerouted. Longer term, the U.S. exit from Erbil injects uncertainty into Iraq’s internal balance and may affect perceived security around northern oil infrastructure and pipeline routes to Turkey, shaping risk discounts on Iraqi grades. Over the next 24–48 hours, key watchpoints are: (1) Clarification from UKMTO and national navies on the identity, flag, cargo, and damage to the three vessels, plus any claims of responsibility; (2) visible changes in shipping patterns—speed reductions, track deviations, or anchoring outside the strait—on AIS data; (3) any U.S. or allied naval redeployments or ROE adjustments in and around Hormuz; (4) reactions from Iran’s political and IRGC leadership, especially if the attacks are attributed to Iranian or proxy actors; and (5) on the Iraqi front, statements from Baghdad, Erbil, and armed factions about the U.S. withdrawal, including any moves to test Iraqi forces or pressure Kurdish positions. Any confirmed halt of major tanker sailings or direct confrontation between Western and Iranian forces would escalate this from a significant warning to a flash-level crisis for both security and energy markets. **MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT:** Hormuz vessel attacks raise immediate risk premia on crude, shipping insurance, and regional FX; end of US combat mission in Iraq changes long-run risk calculus for energy infrastructure, Kurdish producers, and defense equities.