# [WARNING] Fresh Ukrainian Strikes Hit Multiple Russian Refineries

*Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 6:27 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-09-26T06:27:22.235Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, refining, Russia, Ukraine, geopolitics, risk-premium
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/24150.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Ukrainian long‑range drones reportedly struck Russia’s Ilsky and Afipsky refineries in Krasnodar Krai, while the large Perm refinery has halted operations after an earlier attack. The new hits deepen Russian refining outages, tightening diesel and fuel oil balances and adding to the geopolitical risk premium in crude and refined products.

## Detail

Incoming reports indicate another wave of Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refining capacity. The Ilsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai was hit again, with fires reported at the facility; it has six primary refining units and roughly 6.6 million tons/year (about 132 kb/d) of crude capacity producing diesel, gasoline, fuel oil and bitumen. Separate reports say the nearby Afipsky refinery was also attacked, and that Russia’s major Perm refinery has halted operations after a drone strike damaged pipelines, storage and processing units.

While some of these refineries have appeared in earlier alerts, the key new information in this batch is: (1) confirmation that Ilsky has been struck again with visible fires, (2) Afipsky is now also reported under attack, and (3) the scale of Russian air defence activity (claim of 645 drones shot down) underscores persistence and intensity of the campaign. Combined with Reuters reporting that Perm has halted operations, this points to a growing, not transient, disruption to Russian refining.

In aggregate, Ilsky (~132 kb/d) plus Afipsky (~120–150 kb/d range historically) and Perm (~300+ kb/d) represent several hundred thousand barrels per day of refining capacity at risk, though not all of it will be offline simultaneously or for long durations. The market impact channels are: tighter regional supplies of diesel, gasoline and fuel oil, potential reduction in Russian product exports (especially diesel and fuel oil into Europe, MENA, and Asia), and higher internal Russian crude surpluses that may or may not be easily re‑routed.

Historically, sustained Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in 2024–2025 contributed to spikes and volatility in European diesel cracks and supported Brent/WTI spreads via higher risk premia. A renewed, multi‑asset attack pattern that includes repeated hits on Ilsky and the addition of Afipsky increases the probability of prolonged or recurring outages. Market reaction is likely bullish for Brent and gasoil/diesel futures and supportive for fuel oil cracks. If damage assessments in the coming days confirm extended shutdowns beyond routine maintenance timelines, the impact could be multi‑month rather than purely transient, particularly into winter demand for middle distillates.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Gasoil Futures (ICE), ULSD Futures (NYMEX), Fuel Oil (Singapore and Rotterdam), Russian Urals differentials, EUR/USD (via energy terms of trade for Europe)