# [WARNING] Ukraine Drone Strikes Hit Multiple Russian Oil Refineries Again

*Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:11 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-09-25T10:11:40.282Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, Russia, Ukraine, refining, geopolitics
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/24063.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Ukraine carried out new long‑range drone strikes on at least three Russian refineries, including Perm and Novoshakhtinsk, with damage reported to key crude distillation capacity. The repeated targeting of Russian downstream assets tightens product balances and supports refined product cracks and Brent/Urals spreads, adding to the geopolitical risk premium in oil.

## Detail

1) What happened: Intelligence from Kyiv and local Russian sources indicates fresh Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. President Zelensky confirmed overnight strikes on the Perm and Novoshakhtinsk refineries and stated that two Russian radar stations in Rostov region and the Iskra defense plant in Ulyanovsk were also hit. Separately, detailed reporting on the Perm refinery notes at least three fires, including at the AVT‑5 unit, which accounts for roughly one‑third of the plant’s primary crude processing capacity.

2) Supply impact: Precise outage durations are unclear, but if AVT‑5 at Perm is offline for days to weeks, this could temporarily remove several tens of thousands of barrels per day of processing capacity. Combined with reported hits on refineries in Bashkortostan and Samara earlier in the day (per Zelensky’s comment that two refineries were struck in those regions), this points to a cumulative curtailment risk in the low hundreds of thousands of bpd of Russian refining throughput, even if only a fraction is actually offline at any given time. The impact is more acute for refined products (diesel, gasoline, naphtha, jet) than for headline crude supply, as Russia can divert some crude exports but will struggle to maintain product export volumes and domestic supply simultaneously.

3) Market implications: The attacks reinforce a pattern of sustained Ukrainian pressure on Russian refining, which tends to widen Urals discounts, support Brent and other sweet crudes, and particularly boost European diesel cracks and middle‑distillate spreads. European and global diesel futures, gasoline cracks, and crack spreads versus Brent are likely to move higher on the expectation of reduced Russian product exports and logistical disruptions. Russian refined product exporters, shipping rates for product tankers in the Baltic and Black Sea, and freight insurance premia face upside pressure.

4) Precedent: Earlier waves of Ukrainian refinery attacks in 2024–2025 coincided with 2–5% short‑term moves in diesel cracks and noticeable widening of Brent/Urals differentials when market consensus shifted from “one‑off” to “campaign.” This latest set of strikes supports the thesis that Russian refining capacity is in a prolonged period of elevated disruption risk.

5) Duration: Near‑term price effects will hinge on confirmation of damage extent and downtime, but the broader risk premium is structural so long as Ukraine retains long‑range drone capacity. Expect recurring bouts of volatility in refined product markets and persistent upward bias to crack spreads rather than a one‑day spike.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, European diesel futures (ICE Gasoil), Gasoline cracks, Brent/Urals spread, Product tanker freight (Baltic/Black Sea), Russian oil product exports