# [WARNING] Fresh Ukrainian Strikes Hit Multiple Major Russian Refineries

*Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:51 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-09-25T07:51:41.947Z (1h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, refining, Russia, Ukraine, Europe
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/24048.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Ukrainian drones have struck several Russian energy and industrial facilities, including renewed hits on the large Perm refinery and additional damage reports from the Kuibyshev and Novoshakhtinsk refineries. With the Strait of Hormuz already blocked and EU fuel markets tight, incremental Russian refining outages materially tighten global product balances and raise risk premia on oil and diesel.

## Detail

1) What happened: In the last reporting window, Ukrainian forces conducted renewed long‑range drone strikes on Russian industrial infrastructure. Key targets included the LUKOIL‑operated Perm refinery (~13.1 mtpa capacity), with multiple fires at the AVT‑5 unit; follow‑on detail that the Kuibyshev refinery has three crude tanks destroyed, a fourth likely damaged, plus a hit pumping station and damaged feed pipelines, leading to a reported full halt of operations; and attacks on the Novoshakhtinsk refinery (~5.6 mtpa), where damage assessment is ongoing. These come on top of broader mass drone activity into Russian territory.

2) Supply impact: Kuibyshev’s halt removes a significant volume of Russian refined product exports, particularly diesel and gasoline, at least temporarily. If we assume Kuibyshev (~7–8 mtpa class) offline for several weeks and Perm’s effective throughput curtailed by damage to AVT‑5, the market could be facing a cumulative loss of 150–300 kb/d of refining throughput over the near term, depending on repair speed and ability to reroute crude to alternative plants. Novoshakhtinsk’s status is still uncertain, but prior attacks on this plant have caused multi‑week outages. Given sanctions, Russia has limited flexibility to swap products with Western markets, but these refineries are important for exports to global buyers via the Black Sea and internal supply.

3) Affected assets and direction: The primary impact is on refined product cracks and benchmarks: bullish for European diesel/gasoil futures (ICE gasoil), gasoline cracks, and Brent/Urals spreads. With Europe already stressed by Hormuz‑related supply disruptions and Macron explicitly acknowledging EU fuel strain from lost Middle East flows plus Ukrainian strikes, any additional Russian product export reduction amplifies the premium on non‑Russian barrels. Front‑month Brent and gasoil could see >1% moves on expectations of tighter winter product balances and higher risk premium on Russian infrastructure. RUB‑linked energy equities and Russian eurobonds also face incremental risk from infrastructure vulnerability.

4) Precedent: Earlier waves of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries in 2024–25 produced outsized moves in diesel cracks and localized spikes in physical differentials when cumulative offline capacity exceeded ~500 kb/d. The current attacks reinforce a pattern of sustained pressure rather than a one‑off.

5) Duration: Damage at Kuibyshev appears structurally more serious (storage and feed systems) and could keep the plant partially or fully offline for weeks to months. Perm and Novoshakhtinsk impacts are likely multi‑week at minimum. As long as the drone campaign persists, markets will maintain a structural risk premium on Russian refining and European product supply.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, ICE Gasoil Futures, European diesel crack spreads, Northwest Europe gasoline margins, Urals crude differentials, Russian energy equities, Ruble cross rates