# [FLASH] EU Fuel Crunch Deepens Amid Hormuz Blockade, Russian Refinery Strikes

*Friday, September 25, 2026 at 7:31 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-09-25T07:31:43.285Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, ENERGY, oil, refining, shipping, risk-premium, Europe
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/24045.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Macron links EU fuel tightness to the Hormuz blockade and acknowledges Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are worsening the situation, while new Ukrainian drone attacks hit major Russian refining assets at Perm and Novoshakhtinsk and confirm a shutdown at Kuibyshev. This compounds a growing product supply squeeze for Europe and raises the refined-products risk premium in oil markets.

## Detail

1) What happened: In new comments, President Macron explicitly tied Europe’s worsening fuel situation primarily to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and secondarily to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. In the same reporting window, fresh Ukrainian long‑range drone strikes are confirmed against several major Russian energy and industrial sites: the large LUKOIL Perm refinery (~13.1 mtpa), the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov (~5.6 mtpa) with linked export terminals, and follow‑up detail that Russia’s Kuibyshev refinery has halted operations after damage to crude tanks, a pumping station and pipelines feeding its primary processing units. Damage assessment at Novoshakhtinsk is ongoing, but Kuibyshev is confirmed offline and fires are reported at Perm.

2) Supply/demand impact: The Hormuz blockade already constrains Middle Eastern crude and product exports to Europe and Asia, shifting marginal barrels to longer, costlier routes and tightening diesel/gasoil availability in the Atlantic Basin. The incremental loss or impairment of Russian refining capacity—Perm, Kuibyshev, Novoshakhtinsk and other earlier‑hit plants—further cuts exportable Russian diesel, gasoline and vacuum gasoil flows that have been key to backfilling lost Middle Eastern supply into Europe post‑2022. Even partial outages across these refineries can collectively remove several hundred thousand b/d of refined products from seaborne markets in the near term, materially tightening European diesel and gasoline balances, especially heading into autumn maintenance.

3) Affected assets and direction: The net effect is bullish for Brent and WTI (higher crude risk premium from shipping and infrastructure risk) and more acutely bullish for European refined products: ICE gasoil, gasoline, and related crack spreads. European utility and industrial fuel buyers face higher spot pricing and volatility. Russian Urals and ESPO differentials may widen as domestic crude backs up against constrained refining capacity, while product export values spike. European inflation‑sensitive assets and EUR could see marginal pressure via higher energy import costs.

4) Historical precedent: Similar refinery‑plus‑shipping chokepoint shocks—such as attacks on Abqaiq in 2019 or Red Sea disruptions in 2023‑24—triggered multi‑percentage moves in Brent and product cracks over days to weeks as traders repriced regional availability and freight.

5) Duration: As long as Hormuz flows remain restricted and Ukrainian drone campaigns sustain pressure on Russian refineries, this is more than a transient blip; it supports an elevated product risk premium for weeks to months, with upside tail risk if damage at Perm/Novoshakhtinsk proves extensive or further plants are successfully targeted.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, ICE Gasoil, European gasoline cracks, Urals crude differentials, Freight rates (clean tankers), EUR/USD