# [FLASH] Iran Threatens To Keep Strait Of Hormuz Closed

*Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 2:11 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-09-23T14:11:56.185Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, ENERGY, shipping, Middle East, risk-premium, Hormuz
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/23823.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary stated that if U.S. conditions are not met, Tehran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz and will halt negotiations. This explicit linkage of talks to maintaining a closure greatly escalates perceived risk of sustained export disruption from the Gulf, lifting the geopolitical risk premium in oil and related markets.

## Detail

Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has publicly warned that if the U.S. does not accept Iran’s conditions, Tehran will not open the Strait of Hormuz and there will be no negotiations. This follows days of reports of attacks on vessels and drastically reduced commodity traffic through the strait, which is the transit point for roughly a fifth of global oil supply.

The key new element is Iran’s framing of Hormuz not as a temporary battlefield externality but as an explicit bargaining chip whose closure could be prolonged absent political concessions. Markets will interpret this as elevating the probability that reduced traffic and heightened war risk around Hormuz persist for weeks or months rather than days.

From a supply‑side perspective, even partial or intermittent closure impairs exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran itself, particularly for crude and condensate that cannot be readily rerouted via existing pipelines (e.g., Saudi’s Petroline to the Red Sea has limited spare capacity and is itself exposed to Red Sea risks). If, for instance, 3–5 mb/d of flows are effectively delayed, displaced, or priced out due to freight and insurance, global balances tighten materially. That would support higher prices for Brent and Dubai benchmarks, widen backwardation, and raise cracks for middle distillates in Europe and Asia.

This also raises risk premia across Gulf sovereign assets (CDS, local FX where not hard‑pegged, and equity indices), while boosting safe‑haven demand for gold and U.S. Treasuries. USD itself can initially strengthen on risk‑off flows, but if sustained, higher oil prices become a drag on global growth-sensitive currencies and EM importers (INR, TRY, PKR) in particular.

Historically, rhetorical threats to close Hormuz—such as in 2011–2012—have triggered 3–10% moves in Brent over short periods when perceived as credible. The difference now is that kinetic disruption and reduced traffic are already observed, lending weight to the threat and making a >1% price response highly probable.

The risk premium impact is likely medium‑ to long‑lived as long as negotiations remain stalled and Iranian officials publicly tie Hormuz reopening to maximalist conditions.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Gasoil futures, Gulf sovereign CDS (Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Oman), Gold, USD index (DXY), EM FX of oil importers (INR, TRY, PKR)