# [FLASH] Houthis Claim Control Of Bab el-Mandeb And Key Islands

*Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 6:02 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-09-13T18:02:43.448Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, ENERGY, geopolitics, shipping, Middle East, oil
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/22492.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Yemeni Houthi/Sanaa forces claim to have taken the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, Perim Island, Hanish Archipelago and 170 km of Red Sea coastline. If even partially accurate, this materially elevates risk to oil and container shipping transiting between the Indian Ocean and Suez, reinforcing existing Red Sea disruptions and widening the geopolitical risk premium for crude and products.

## Detail

1) What happened: A pro‑Houthi report states that forces from Sanaa have captured 5,770 km² since 3 September, including 170 km of coastline, the Hanish Archipelago, Perim Island and, critically, the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait itself. A separate report notes Houthis have seized the strategic height of Jabal al Rawa in western Taiz, consistent with a broader westward push toward the Red Sea. In parallel, Saudi Crown Prince MBS has reportedly requested Israeli intelligence support against Houthis blocking Bab el‑Mandeb, implying Riyadh views the threat to the strait and shipping lanes as serious and ongoing.

2) Supply/demand impact: Bab el‑Mandeb is the southern chokepoint of the Suez/Red Sea route; roughly 6–8 mb/d of crude and refined products and a large share of Asia–Europe container and dry bulk flows normally transit here. Actual physical flow stoppages are not yet confirmed, but the combination of Houthi territorial gains on the littoral, control of islands astride the lane, and reports of Saudi concern suggests elevated probability of more frequent or longer-range attacks on tankers and possibly LNG carriers. Even a modest diversion of flows around the Cape of Good Hope (adding ~10–14 days) tightens effective supply, particularly for European and Mediterranean refiners and for fuel oil flows into Asia.

3) Affected assets and direction: This development is bullish for Brent and Dubai benchmarks via higher Middle East risk premium and potential logistical constraints on Red Sea and Suez-linked flows. It supports higher freight rates for Aframax/Suezmax and container shipping on Asia–Europe routes, and raises replacement cost for European diesel and fuel oil. LNG risk is secondary but will modestly support European and Asian gas hub prices if shippers increase Cape routings. Safe haven bids could marginally support gold and USD, but the primary impact is on energy and shipping.

4) Historical precedent: Past Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping (e.g., 2023–24) triggered multi‑percent moves in Brent and large spikes in freight as vessels rerouted. Control of littoral territory and islands near the lane increases their capacity to sustain such pressure.

5) Duration: Risk is medium‑ to long‑lived. Even without full physical closure, elevated insurance premia, naval escort requirements, and intermittent attacks can keep a structural risk premium in crude and product markets for months, until there is a significant rollback of Houthi capabilities or a negotiated de‑escalation.


**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, GasOil futures, European diesel cracks, Tanker freight (Suezmax/Aframax), Container freight Asia-Europe, LNG freight rates, European natural gas benchmarks (TTF, NBP)