# [WARNING] Reports: Persian Gulf Oil Exports via Hormuz Rebound to Two-Thirds Pre‑Blockade

*Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 6:21 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-08-29T18:21:24.042Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: energy, oil, StraitOfHormuz, MiddleEast, shipping, markets
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/20235.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Oil exports from Persian Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed back to 15–16 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs-cited figures on 29 Aug around 17:40–17:56 UTC. Flows remain roughly one‑third below pre‑blockade levels, meaning refiners, shippers and governments get partial relief but the world’s key energy chokepoint is still not fully normalized.

## Detail

Oil flows through the world’s most critical energy chokepoint are recovering but not yet whole. As of roughly 17:40–17:56 UTC on 29 August, multiple channels citing Goldman Sachs report that exports of oil and oil products from Persian Gulf states via the Strait of Hormuz have risen to 15–16 million barrels per day—about two‑thirds of the levels seen before the recent blockade and conflict‑related disruptions. That volume swing is large enough to alter the near‑term balance in crude and refined product markets, especially for Asia and Europe.

The figures, relayed in Ukrainian- and Middle East–focused feeds summarizing a Goldman Sachs assessment, indicate that roughly 5–8 million barrels per day are still missing compared with pre‑blockade throughput, depending on the baseline used. There is no indication yet that the chokepoint is fully secure; rather, enough traffic has resumed for tankers to move significant cargoes under heightened military escort, altered routing, or higher insurance costs. The timing—late afternoon UTC on 29 August—places this as a current operational status, not a historical average.

For real economies, this partial reopening means refiners from India to South Korea gain improved access to Gulf grades that had been delayed or rerouted, reducing the risk of acute supply shortages and product rationing. European buyers, already scrambling to balance Russian supply constraints, may see some easing of competition for Atlantic Basin barrels as Asian refiners lean more confidently on Middle Eastern streams. However, the persistent one‑third shortfall will keep feedstock costs elevated for vulnerable importers such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and parts of East Africa that rely on spot cargoes and have less pricing power.

On the security side, the numbers suggest that naval and air operations in and around Hormuz have achieved a measure of operational access but not full restoration of pre‑war shipping patterns. Owners and charterers are clearly willing to risk more tonnage through the strait, but convoy schedules, military posture, and the rules of engagement of regional powers still determine how quickly that remaining third of capacity can return—or vanish again if hostilities flare. Any renewed attack on tankers, loading terminals, or navigation infrastructure could quickly reverse the gains reflected in today’s figures.

Markets will read this as a mixed signal. The additional 5–6 million barrels per day compared to the trough of the blockade significantly reduces worst‑case scenarios that had supported extreme bull cases in crude and product spreads. Front‑month Brent and Dubai benchmarks are likely to soften from blockade-induced highs, and some of the most inflated freight rates on VLCC and product tankers through the Gulf–Asia and Gulf–Europe routes could ease. Yet options markets and insurers will still price in a meaningful tail risk while a full third of normal throughput remains offline.

In the next 24–48 hours, watch for corroborating data from tanker‑tracking firms, AIS patterns, and port agent reports to confirm whether 15–16 million barrels per day is stable or a transient peak tied to a few convoys. Also critical will be any signals from regional navies and the U.S. Fifth Fleet on convoy commitments, as well as statements from OPEC producers on whether they view current logistics as sufficient to meet quotas. A new disruption—whether from attacks, sanctions expansion, or a naval incident—could quickly push flows back down and re‑ignite an upward spike in oil, shipping equities, and Gulf sovereign spreads.

**MARKET IMPACT ASSESSMENT:**
Partial restoration of Hormuz flows eases upside pressure on crude benchmarks and tanker rates, but sustained shortfall vs. pre-blockade levels keeps a geopolitical risk premium under the market, especially for Middle East grades and insurance pricing.