# [WARNING] El Niño slams Peruvian anchovy catch, fishmeal supply collapses

*Saturday, August 1, 2026 at 7:21 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-08-01T19:21:01.986Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, agriculture, ElNino, fishing, feed, LatAm
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/16711.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

---

**Summary**: Peru reports a 51.9% drop in total fishing activity in June, with anchoveta landings—the core input for global fishmeal and fish oil—down 99.9% year‑on‑year amid El Niño‑linked warm waters. This represents a severe supply shock to fishmeal markets, with knock‑on effects for global aquaculture and livestock feed costs. Expect strong upward pressure on fishmeal prices and some spillover into soybean meal and other protein feeds.

## Detail

1) What happened:
Peruvian authorities report that total fishing in June plunged 51.94% year‑on‑year, driven by an extraordinary 99.9% collapse in anchoveta landings: 629 metric tons versus 462,302 tons a year earlier. The temporary suspension of anchovy fishing is attributed to elevated sea temperatures along Peru’s central and northern coasts caused by El Niño. Peru is the world’s dominant producer of anchoveta‑based fishmeal and fish oil, making this a major disruption.

2) Supply/demand impact:
Peru typically accounts for roughly 20–30% of global fishmeal exports, depending on the season. A near‑total halt in landings for a month (and potentially longer if warm anomalies persist) materially tightens global supply. Stockpiles can buffer some of the shock, but if subsequent seasons are also constrained, cumulative losses become significant.

Downstream, higher fishmeal prices raise input costs for:
- Aquaculture (salmon, shrimp, other farmed fish), heavily reliant on fishmeal and fish oil.
- High‑protein livestock feeds, which often use fishmeal as a premium protein ingredient.

This typically triggers partial substitution into soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and other plant proteins, marginally increasing demand and supporting prices in those markets.

3) Affected assets and directional bias:
- Fishmeal and fish oil spot and forward prices: Strongly bullish.
- Global aquaculture producer margins and equities: Bearish on cost pressure, unless they have long‑term coverage.
- Soybean meal futures (CBOT) and related oilseed meals: Mildly bullish on substitution demand.
- Freight for Peru–Asia bulk routes (small/handysize for fishmeal): Supportive once exports restart, with higher value per ton.

4) Historical precedent:
Previous strong El Niño events (e.g., 1997–98, 2015–16) led to quota cuts and canceled anchovy seasons in Peru, which drove sharp spikes in fishmeal prices and temporary shifts in global feed formulations. While these did not dramatically move headline ag benchmarks alone, they contributed to broader feed cost inflation.

5) Duration:
If El Niño conditions persist, constraints could span multiple seasons, making this more than a one‑month shock. Market impact on fishmeal/fish oil could be structural over 6–18 months, with more modest and diffuse spillovers into oilseed meals and global feed costs over similar horizons.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Fishmeal prices (Peru FOB), Fish oil prices, CBOT Soybean Meal futures, Aquaculture producer equities, Global livestock feed indices