# [WARNING] Trump, Iran Trade Threats Over Control of Hormuz

*Monday, July 13, 2026 at 2:55 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-07-13T14:55:12.485Z (5h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, ENERGY, RISK_PREMIUM, OIL, SHIPPING, HORMUZ
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/14312.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: US President Trump said the US should control the Strait of Hormuz and get paid for it, while Iran warned it will not allow US interference. In the context of ongoing US–IRGC clashes and already elevated risk, this rhetoric reinforces the probability of shipping disruption and sustains or widens the Gulf energy risk premium.

## Detail

What happened: New reports quote US President Donald Trump saying the US, not Iran, should control the Strait of Hormuz and be paid for it, while a parallel update notes Iran warning that it will not allow US interference in Hormuz. These comments come alongside an existing pattern of US–IRGC escalation and earlier reports of missile exchanges and partial disruption to Hormuz traffic.

Supply-side impact: No new kinetic event is reported in this specific update, but the strategic choke point involved is critical: roughly 17–20 mb/d of crude and condensate plus key LNG flows pass through Hormuz. The market is already on edge from confirmed clashes and shipping disruptions; a US leader explicitly calling for control of Hormuz raises tail risks of (1) more aggressive US naval posturing, (2) Iranian harassment or temporary closure attempts, and (3) insurance and freight surcharges for Gulf loadings. Even without physical shutdown, risk premia in freight and war-risk insurance can effectively increase delivered crude costs and briefly tighten prompt availability as some buyers diversify away from Gulf grades.

Market impact: The immediate reaction bias is bullish for crude benchmarks (Brent and Dubai more than WTI), product cracks in Europe/Asia, and LNG linked to Qatar flows. Tanker equities (especially VLCC/MR with MEG exposure) typically benefit from higher freight and war-risk pricing. FX-wise, heightened Gulf tension usually supports safe havens (USD, CHF) and risk hedges like gold, while weighing on importers heavily reliant on Gulf crude (INR, PKR, TRY). The prospect of US–Iran confrontation around Hormuz also adds geopolitical risk premium to volatility indices and Middle East sovereign credit spreads.

Historical precedent: Similar but even less explicit threats during the 2018–2020 US–Iran standoffs and the 2012 sanctions round reliably added $2–5/bbl of risk premium to Brent when markets feared Hormuz disruption, even without a closure. The current comments, layered atop fresh reports of clashes and missile use, fit that pattern.

Duration: As rhetoric, the impact is likely to be acute but could fade in days if not followed by concrete naval moves or attacks. However, because it reinforces an existing, active confrontation around Hormuz, it helps keep a structural risk premium embedded in Middle East barrels and tanker routes for weeks or longer unless de-escalation becomes credible.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Gasoil futures, Asian LNG spot, Tanker equities (VLCC/MR with MEG exposure), Gold, USD index, CHF, INR, TRY, Middle East sovereign CDS