# [WARNING] OPEC Output Jumps After Partial Hormuz Reopening; Offsets Some Risk

*Monday, July 13, 2026 at 1:55 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-07-13T13:55:29.157Z (2h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, OPEC, supply-side, Hormuz
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/14304.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: An OPEC report indicates group crude output rose ~17% in June to 22 mb/d following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This adds meaningful barrels back to the market and partially offsets the bullish risk premium from current US–Iran tensions, flattening the very front end of the oil curve relative to deferred contracts.

## Detail

1) What happened: A report circulating from OPEC claims that its oil production rose 16.9% in June to an average of 22 mb/d, attributing the increase to the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (#10). The magnitude of the change implies that prior disruptions around Hormuz had effectively curtailed OPEC+ seaborne exports and that physical flows have since recovered materially.

2) Supply impact: A near‑17% increase in OPEC crude from one month to the next equates to roughly 3.2 mb/d of additional supply versus May within the cartel. While this headline figure may not perfectly align with official secondary‑source statistics, it still signals a large swing. Even if true volumes are smaller, any confirmation that key Gulf exporters are now moving more barrels through Hormuz eases immediate tightness in the prompt physical market, especially into Asia. The net effect is to cushion the upside from today’s risk premium events by signalling available spare capacity and current utilization.

3) Affected assets and direction: Immediately, the data are modestly bearish for front‑month Brent and WTI versus where they would otherwise trade under escalating Gulf tensions. Physical differentials for Middle Eastern grades (Dubai, Oman, Murban) into Asia may soften at the margin if more barrels are offered. The curve could see some flattening in the very front, with time spreads narrowing if the market believes these higher output levels are sustainable. However, given the concurrent missile exchanges and depressed Hormuz transits, traders are likely to treat this as a buffer rather than a trend change, so the net direction for flat price remains skewed higher than before the crisis began, but lower than it would be without this added supply.

4) Historical precedent: During previous Gulf crises, clear evidence of higher OPEC Gulf output (e.g., post‑2011 Libya, early 2022 Russia disruption) dampened otherwise sharper spikes in benchmarks by 2–5% relative to implied risk.

5) Duration: The market will test whether the 22 mb/d level is sustainable. If further escalation in Hormuz reverses these gains, the bearish effect will prove transient. If flows normalize and political risk recedes, this output level would be structurally bearish; under current conditions it mainly serves to cap the upside.


**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Murban Crude, Oil time spreads (Brent prompt spread)