# [WARNING] Ukraine Drone Attacks Cut Russian Fuel Output, Moscow Imports Gasoline

*Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 1:41 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-06-25T13:41:24.603Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oilProducts, Russia, UkraineWar, shipping, riskPremium
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/11904.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and an oil depot have reportedly cut Russian gasoline output by 25%, forcing Russia to seek gasoline supplies from India. This intensifies Russia’s domestic fuel crunch, reshapes product flows, and supports margins and crack spreads for alternative exporters.

## Detail

1) What happened:
Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have hit multiple Russian downstream assets: the Poltavskaya oil depot in Krasnodar (reports [8], [60]) and two Bashneft refineries in Ufa (~1,500 km from the front, report [8]), adding to an already heavy campaign against Russian refining. A follow-on report states that Russia has turned to India for gasoline imports after drone strikes cut its gasoline output by 25% (report [23]). This implies a sustained and substantial impairment to domestic refining capacity.

2) Supply/demand impact (quantification):
Russia is a key global exporter of diesel and other clean products. A 25% reduction in gasoline output suggests several hundred thousand barrels per day of lost motor fuel production. Even if much of that loss is absorbed by rationing and reduced exports, Russia now appears to be flipping from net exporter toward net importer for some light products. That tightens regional balances in Asia and potentially the Middle East as India and others redirect gasoline and naphtha flows to Russia instead of other destinations. The effect will be higher regional gasoline and naphtha cracks and stronger margins for non‑Russian refineries that can backfill exports to Europe, Africa, and LatAm formerly supplied by Russian barrels.

3) Affected assets and direction:
The primary impact is bullish for refined product benchmarks rather than crude flat price. Expect upward pressure on:
- European and Asian gasoline cracks vs Brent
- Naphtha and potentially diesel spreads
- Freight for MR and LR product tankers on India–Russia and India–West routes
Crude itself may see a mild bearish offset if Russian upstream runs are curtailed by lower refining utilization and storage constraints, but the net market‑moving effect is more clearly on products.

4) Historical precedent:
Earlier in 2024–2025, each major Ukrainian strike on Russian refineries (Tuapse, Volgograd, etc.) triggered short‑lived spikes in regional product cracks and re‑routing of trade flows. The difference now is the scale: a reported 25% national gasoline output hit plus repeated strikes in Ufa and Krasnodar points toward a more structural loss of capacity.

5) Duration:
Repair timelines for complex refineries are months, not weeks, especially under sanctions and repeated attack. As long as facilities remain at risk and Russia is forced to import gasoline, elevated product cracks and tanker demand are likely to persist through at least the medium term.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** European gasoline crack spreads, Asian gasoline swaps, ICE Gasoil, Urals crude differentials, Product tanker freight (MR/LR), INR/RUB trade flows