# [WARNING] Hormuz Traffic Reported Resuming, Easing Extreme Oil Price Fears

*Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 1:21 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-06-25T13:21:28.353Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, shipping, MiddleEast, supply
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/11900.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Regional media report that oil tankers have started moving again through the Strait of Hormuz after a four‑month blockage linked to the Iran war, contributing to recent declines in crude prices. This suggests partial restoration of a critical artery for Gulf exports, tempering worst‑case supply scenarios even as political and security risks persist.

## Detail

1) What happened:
A Spanish-language economic report notes that oil tankers have begun to circulate again through the Strait of Hormuz, which it describes as having been blocked for four months, and attributes falling oil prices to this resumed traffic. While the characterization of a full four‑month "blockage" may be overstated, the key market-relevant point is that traders and media now perceive a meaningful reopening of Hormuz maritime flows after a period of severe disruption tied to the Iran war.

2) Supply-side impact:
Hormuz handles around a fifth of global oil trade and a large share of Gulf LNG exports. Even partial restoration of tanker movements materially increases effective export capacity compared with a scenario of near-closure or extremely constrained flows. The resumption implies:
- Additional seaborne crude availability of several mb/d relative to the height of the disruption, as regular schedules resume and owners grow more comfortable with risk.
- Lower probability weighting of extreme tail risks such as a prolonged, near-total closure of Hormuz.
This aligns with observed declines in crude benchmarks as markets re‑price from a scarcity to a constrained-but-flowing regime.

3) Affected assets and direction:
- Brent, WTI, Dubai: Bearish vs the prior conflict-highs; re‑opening flows can easily drive >1–3% downside from panic peaks, though the concurrent IRGC threats limit how far prices can fall.
- Time spreads and prompt physical differentials for Gulf-linked grades: Likely to soften as prompt tightness eases and refinery buyers see improved loading visibility.
- Freight and war-risk insurance: Still elevated but may stabilize or pull back from extremes if safe routing is consistently demonstrated.

4) Historical precedent:
Following prior episodes of severe Gulf tension (e.g., 1980s Tanker War, 2019 incidents), actual continuation or quick resumption of physical flows often led to a retracement of the most elevated risk premia in oil futures, even while an underlying geopolitical premium remained embedded.

5) Duration:
Assuming flows continue and no major new interdictions occur, the easing of the extreme Hormuz risk premium could be sustained over weeks to months. However, given fresh IRGC radio warnings and continuing war dynamics, a non-trivial geopolitical premium will likely persist structurally, keeping volatility high and making the downside conditional on security developments.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Murban Crude, LNG spot Asia, Tanker freight rates