# [FLASH] US–Iran Pact Confirmed, Hormuz Reopening And Oil Glut Forecast

*Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 7:40 AM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-06-18T07:40:31.738Z (3h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, Iran, US, Strait-of-Hormuz, risk-premium, OPEC+
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/10970.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: US and Iranian officials confirm a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Pakistan stating it takes immediate effect, while the IEA now forecasts a supply glut next year post‑deal. This combination materially reduces Middle East crude and shipping risk premium and implies higher available Iranian and regional flows, pressuring Brent and time spreads.

## Detail

1) What happened: Multiple official and semi‑official sources report that the US and Iran have signed and brought into force a memorandum of understanding intended to end the current conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s prime minister, a key mediator, says the MoU enables an “immediate” reopening path. Iran’s foreign ministry is publicly framing Israeli actions in Lebanon as a potential violation of the deal, indicating conditional but real de‑escalation. Parallel headlines note the IEA now projects an oil supply glut next year as a result of the US‑Iran agreement.

2) Supply/demand impact: A functional reopening of Hormuz removes the primary chokepoint threat for roughly 20 mb/d of crude and condensate and a large share of global LNG flows. More importantly for balances, sanctions relief and de‑risked shipping could allow Iranian exports to move from roughly 1.5–2.0 mb/d toward 2.5+ mb/d over 6–18 months, adding up to ~1 mb/d of incremental supply versus stress‑case scenarios. The IEA’s “glut” language suggests looser OPEC+ discipline and limited offsetting cuts in the baseline outlook.

3) Affected assets and direction: The near‑term impact is bearish for Brent, WTI, Dubai, and front‑end time spreads (weaker backwardation, risk of contango in 2026 maturities) as traders price lower war‑risk premiums and higher prospective Iranian and Gulf flows. Tanker equities may see mixed effects: lower risk premiums but higher volumes; VLCC rates could benefit from sustained flows even at lower flat prices. LNG shipping risk discounts may narrow, easing Asian JKM risk premium. Currencies of key Gulf exporters (SAR, AED pegs; QAR, KWD) remain anchored, but EM oil exporters more generally (e.g., NGN, COP) could face pressure from lower crude realizations.

4) Historical precedent: The 2015 JCPOA and 2016–17 Iranian ramp‑up pushed Brent down several dollars relative to contemporaneous demand trends and flattened the curve as Iranian barrels re‑entered Asia and Europe. Risk premium removal around Hormuz tensions in 2012 and 2019 also triggered 2–5% corrections in Brent over days.

5) Duration: The impact is structural if implementation holds: more supply and less chokepoint risk for at least several years. However, Iran’s warnings that continued Israeli action in Lebanon could breach the MoU add headline risk; any sign of backsliding could re‑inject volatility. Base case is a sustained, multi‑quarter bearish bias to crude benchmarks and risk premia.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Oil time spreads, VLCC freight rates, JKM LNG, EM oil exporter FX