# [WARNING] Iran leaks draft US deal with oil sanctions waiver, Hormuz open

*Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 1:40 PM UTC — Hamer Intelligence Services Desk*

**Detected**: 2026-06-14T13:40:57.629Z (28h ago)
**Tags**: MARKET, energy, oil, MiddleEast, Iran, riskPremium
**Sources**: OSINT
**Permalink**: https://hamerintel.com/data/alerts/10439.md
**Source**: https://hamerintel.com/summaries

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**Summary**: Iranian sources have leaked details of a draft memorandum with the US that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial shipping, lift the US naval blockade on Iranian ports over 30 days, and include an oil sanctions waiver plus nuclear limits and asset releases. If implemented, this would structurally increase available seaborne crude supply and sharply reduce Middle East shipping risk premia, but the parallel Israeli strikes in Beirut and harsh Iranian parliamentary rhetoric significantly raise implementation risk.

## Detail

1) What happened: Multiple reports (items 10, 35, 36, 45, 49, 52, 53) indicate that Tehran has provided Reuters and other outlets with the core terms of a draft US–Iran understanding. According to the leaked memorandum, Iran would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels, while the US would begin lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, completing the process within 30 days. The deal reportedly includes an oil sanctions waiver, nuclear program limits, and release of Iranian assets. This leak is occurring as Israel has struck Beirut’s Dahieh district, killing a senior Hezbollah figure, and top Iranian officials (Ghalibaf, Khatam al‑Anbiya HQ) are publicly warning that Israeli actions “will not go unanswered” and questioning US ability to honor commitments.

2) Supply/demand impact: If the deal is signed and implemented, it would legitimise a substantial portion of Iran’s currently semi‑sanctioned exports. Market estimates put Iranian crude and condensate exports today near 1.5–1.8 mb/d; a formal waiver and secure transit via Hormuz could allow a further 0.5–1.0 mb/d to reach market over 3–9 months, plus higher utilisation of Iranian storage. The removal of naval interdiction risk and explicit Hormuz reopening would also cut freight and insurance premia on all Gulf barrels (Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Emirati), easing perceived tail risk of a blockade.

3) Affected assets and direction: Brent and WTI should price in a medium‑term bearish supply shock if traders view the deal as likely, with potential >2–3% downside on confirmation. Dubai benchmarks and Oman/DME futures could move more on regional supply normalization. Tanker equities and MEG–Asia freight could initially rally on higher volumes but see lower risk premia over time. Gold and JPY may soften if Gulf war risk recedes, while EM importers’ FX (INR, PKR, TRY) benefit from lower oil. Conversely, if Israeli–Iranian escalation derails the deal, energy markets would quickly reprice a risk premium back into Brent and Dubai.

4) Historical precedent: The 2015 JCPOA and the 2016–2017 ramp‑up of Iranian exports pushed an additional ~1 mb/d into the market and were associated with softer Brent structure and narrower Dubai spreads. However, markets also remember the Trump administration’s 2018 withdrawal, so risk discounting of implementation will be high.

5) Duration: If executed, this is a structural, multi‑year supply‑side easing and a sustained reduction in Mideast transit risk premia. In the near term (days–weeks), price action will be highly headline‑driven given the Beirut strike and explicit Iranian threats; failure of the deal or retaliatory attacks in Hormuz would flip this from bearish to sharply bullish very quickly.

**AFFECTED ASSETS:** Brent Crude, WTI Crude, Dubai Crude, Oman Crude Futures, Tanker equities (MEG-Asia focused), Gold, USD/JPY, INR, TRY, Emerging market oil importers’ FX basket